US President Donald Trump playing peacemaker in the Middle East, where UAE and Bahrain make peace with long-time foe Israel, will not only change the politics of the Arab-Muslim world, but will also have an impact on the new world order that is shaping up with the rise of China. While Donald Trump may have selfish reasons for trying to solve some of the world’s most intractable problems—re-election, search for legacy and a possible Nobel prize—but there is no denying him credit for shepherding at least the final stretch of this very long race. However, if peace has been possible it is primarily because on both sides of the Arab-Israeli divide, the voices of sanity and forces of moderation have prevailed, as realisation has dawned that there is progress in peace, however much the animosity. It is hoped that one of the other “five-six” countries willing to establish diplomatic relations with Israel—according to President Trump—will be Saudi Arabia, considered to be the “leader” of the ArabMuslim world. Under Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia has started looking at the future possibility of shifting from an oil-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. In this sphere, there cannot be a better partner than Israel for the Arab world. The Saudi Crown Prince’s push towards modernisation is also expected to pay dividends, including, it is hoped, eradication of the Wahhabi ideology from among certain sections. In strategic terms, while this push towards normalcy is being seen as an attempt to “checkmate” Iran, the other country that might get “checkmated” in the process is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey. With his ambition of being the new Caliph of the Islamic world, Erdogan wants to bring countries out of the Saudi ambit and one of the ways he thinks he can do this is by making common cause with Pakistan on everything anti-India, a reflection of which is being seen in the United Nations and other international fora.
The “mentoring” of this bloc by China cannot be ruled out, notwithstanding Ankara’s occasionally fraught relationship with Beijing over China’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims. With China holding the purse strings, there is a strong possibility of both Turkey and Iran getting sucked into China’s debt-trap “diplomacy”. As for India’s rogue neighbour, Pakistan, it seems to be throwing in its lot with Turkey, thus risking the wrath of Saudi Arabia, its long-time mentor. With China as its “iron brother”—more an overlord—and with both brothers’ common enemy being India, it is not difficult to understand why, in future, Pakistan may need China more than Saudi Arabia. This is good for India because Pakistan’s influence in the OIC will continue to reduce and Pakistani moves to raise issues related to India will continue to be stymied by member countries, as it was done by both UAE and Maldives recently.
This is important for India when seen in the context of a Pakistani-instigated and possibly Chinese-funded propaganda that was unleashed regarding the Citizenship Amendment Act, to give one instance. It could have driven a wedge between India and the Arab world, but did not because of India’s increasingly improving relationship with the GCC. Also, mention must be made of the fact that the “Chinese bloc”, if it can be called so, is now home to countries that are fountainheads of terror—the Wahhabis in Pakistan and in Erdogan’s Turkey, and the Khomeinists in Iran. India needs to be vigilant about this coalition of the vile, especially since Erdogan is working towards his project of turning Indian Muslims against the Indian state. Lest we make a mistake, his influence on the Muslims of the subcontinent is substantial and he is a known backer of ISIS terrorists. It’s a different matter though that has not stopped Donald Trump from supporting him against the Kurds! Erdogan is fast emerging as the trouble-maker of the Islamic world, and chances are that he will try to exploit the anti-Israel sentiments of the Arab Street to his advantage. It’s ironic that the country that birthed Wahhabism, Saudi Arabia, is now moving down the path of reform, while Erdogan, the leader of the country that had a modernist and secularist Mustafa Kemal Ata Turk as its founder, is now patronising terrorists of the worst kind. What difference can a leader make to the trajectory of a country! Even as this new order takes shape, it is incumbent on India’s part to strengthen its relationship with the Arab world and to help ensure that the Wahhabis and the Khomeinists lose their relevance