The votes have been cast for the Congress Presidential race with both Shashi Tharoor and Mallikarjun Kharge as the contesting candidates. While there was no official word on this, the unofficial message is that Kharge is the candidate backed by the Gandhi family; and it is he who is tipped to win. While there is expected to be little surprise as to who emerges as the winner, what will be interesting is to see the margins. There are a total of 9,000 plus (around 9,180). What then will be the margin where one can say that Tharoor gave a “respectable fight” to the Establishment’s candidate. While some put this at around 10-15% of the votes i.e. around 1500 to 2000, I think if Tharoor can cross 1,000, he would have won the war even if he lost the battle. With most of the PCC delegates being appointed through the nomination route, it is clear where their loyalties lie. Plus Tharoor has positioned himself as the disrupter, one who wants to shake the status quo, bring in more transparency and democracy, while Kharge represents the status quo. In other words, with Kharge in place, the Gandhis will continue to call the shots; only poor Kharge will be the scapegoat when things go wrong (as they are expected to do in the coming Gujarat and Himachal polls).
Interestingly, when veteran Congress leader the late Jitendra Prasada contested against Sonia Gandhi in November 2000, he managed to get only 94 votes from the 7,000 plus strong electorate. Given this background, if Tharoor manages to cross 250, that in itself would be no small feat. Unlike Prasada, Tharoor is not an organisational man. His was a lateral entry into the party, though there is no denying his appeal amongst the urban middle class. In various interviews, Tharoor has also demonstrated his ability to speak both in English and Hindi. In fact, his biggest USP is that he always gets the media’s attention. With the Congress leadership complaining that the media only focuses on PM Modi, this is one person who can compete with the PM. The Congress can easily use Tharoor to get its message out even if he doesn’t make it as party chief. In fact, what will happen to Tharoor post the election—this is assuming that the political pundits are right in predicting his downfall. Will the Gandhis treat him as suspicion or will they co-opt him and use his skills for the good of the party? Well, that’s something we will have to wait and see, though the precedents are not in Tharoor’s favour (if he loses).
Priya Sahgal