While everyone is eagerly waiting for the exit poll results to be released on November 30 so as to have a broader idea about where the wind is blowing in the five states ahead of counting on December 3, the polls managers of both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party have started making an assessment of what is to come.
They are discussing all sorts of scenarios post-counting. They discuss the possible moves of independents or winners of smaller parties in case of a hung house in any state. The strategists of the Congress party are considering the option of relocating their party MLAs to a destination outside Jaipur in case of a close election result. As the voting in Telangana concludes on November 30, the exit polls will be closely watched, as they have been accurate on some occasions.
In recent years, exit polls have become an integral part of the election process. They are conducted to predict the outcome of an election before the actual results are declared. However, there have been instances when these exit polls have gone horribly wrong, leading to a lot of confusion and chaos.
One such instance was the Bihar election of 2015. All exit polls had predicted a clear victory for the BJP-led NDA alliance. However, when the actual results were declared, it was the JD (U)-led grand alliance that emerged victorious. This was a glaring example of how exit polls can be misleading and inaccurate. The Bihar election of 2015 was not the only instance when exit polls failed to predict the outcome of an election. In fact, there have been several such instances in the past. This has led to a lot of debate and discussion about the reliability of exit polls and whether they should be given so much importance.
Despite this, exit polls continue to be conducted before every major election. While they may not always be accurate, they do provide a glimpse into the mood of the voters and the possible outcome of the election.
As with Bihar, the post-election atmosphere in Rajasthan is tense. Speculations abound regarding the BJP’s victory in the state. Some experts predict the party will win between 105-115 seats, while others expect as many as 125 seats. Meanwhile, the BJP itself is claiming victory in 135 seats in Rajasthan. At the same time, there is a section of analysts that is predicting less than 100 seats for BJP. The intelligence agency is also predicting similar lines for the BJP. There are speculations that the Congress might end up bagging only 85-90 seats and BJP may win 90.
With this being the scenario, independents and smaller parties could win 20-25 seats together. So these outfits and independents can play a crucial role in the formation of government in Rajasthan if a hung house is there. With this in view, the BJP and the Congress have started counting independents with an analysis of their inclination now.