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QUAD SHOULD SHED ITS PACIFIST APPROACH

A meeting of the heads of state and government of the four countries comprising the Quad—the Quadrilateral informal strategic forum—was held virtually in March this year. The next meeting may be held towards the end of this year, when the leaders of India, United States, Japan and Australia are expected to meet in person—giant progress […]

A meeting of the heads of state and government of the four countries comprising the Quad—the Quadrilateral informal strategic forum—was held virtually in March this year. The next meeting may be held towards the end of this year, when the leaders of India, United States, Japan and Australia are expected to meet in person—giant progress for an informal grouping that was revived in 2017 after its first edition collapsed in 2007. However, on closer scrutiny, the giant progress may not appear so gigantic, considering the near zero emphasis given on the military-security aspect of the Quad, specifically on the signing of an Indo-Pacific charter. During his India visit last month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made it clear that the Quad was not a military alliance, but a means “to advance cooperation on regional challenges while reinforcing international rules and values that we believe together underpin peace, prosperity, stability in the region”. It is about “four like-minded countries coming together to work on some of the most important issues of the time that are going to have a real impact on the lives of the people and do in a way that ensures a free and open Indo-Pacific”. Noble sentiments, but when the adversary is Xi Jinping’s People’s Republic of China, can anyone bet on the impossibility of a kinetic conflict to ensure even minimum peace in the Indo-Pacific region? Can peace be achieved when the threat of aggression by the People’s Liberation Army continues to hound Quad members such as India and Japan, as well as the so-called Quad Plus countries? Also, how long before the PRC starts posing a military threat to the US mainland?

In March, at the Quad leaders’ first summit, the statement on the “spirit of the Quad” put firm emphasis on economic and health impacts of Covid-19, climate change, cyber space, critical technologies, counterterrorism, infrastructure investment, humanitarian-assistance, disaster-relief, affordable vaccine production, apart from a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. The Indo-Pacific construct will always have different aspects to it, but at the core of it, it’s about containing the PRC. And without the formalization of the Quad into a meaningful “strategic alliance”, with deep military roots, the Quad may not be going anywhere. At a time when the Nato is becoming increasingly irrelevant, with the dissipation of the Soviet/Russian threat, the “security instrument of the transatlantic community” should now be replaced with the “security instrument of the Indo-Pacific community”, where just like Article 5 of the Washington Treaty that birthed Nato in 1949, “an attack against one Ally is (to be considered as) an attack against all”. Such an Indo-Pacific charter will bring instant confidence to a region that is bedeviled by the spectre of an aggressive PRC. Without a military alliance how can the ASEAN feel confident, given the US’s rather poor track record of protecting its allies and partners? Remember the 2012 Scarborough Shoal incident where the US did not lift a finger to help Philippines as China grabbed the disputed shoal? In such a scenario, it’s but natural that the region will “buy/make” peace with the neighbourhood thug, and thus a thriving economic union will be handed to Beijing on a platter.

Also not talking about a military alliance, while simultaneously holding naval exercises of the Quad members sends confusing signals. It’s time to shed all diffidence and pretence, and catch the dragon by its tail, which is possible only when a military component is introduced to the Quad. On their own, individual nations will be hard-pressed to take on the PRC. Together, it’s a different story altogether, the reason why any mention of Quad makes Beijing apoplectic. It’s time to realise the full potential of the Quad.

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