Exploratory exercises for a UPA in a new avatar have already started, and some days ago, Maharashtra strongman and NCP supremo Sharad Pawar, with the assistance of former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha, organised a get together of some like-minded people at his New Delhi residence. The move, which is in its very initial stages, was aimed at identifying issues as well as ascertain whether such an alliance of Opposition parties, with or without Congress, was possible to take on the NDA in 2024. The objective was to also identify Pawar as the prime mover of this proposal, thus making him the primary leader, who could at some juncture lead this coalition. There is no doubt that Pawar is a master of strategy and can play the political game as well as anybody in the super league. However, he has not been keeping good health and therefore should allow, somebody younger and more energetic than himself, to lead this kind of a front if at all it gets formed.
The timing of this meeting coincides with the failure of the Congress to assert itself in any of the recent elections, thereby raising doubts over its ability to lead an alternative alliance, despite being the single largest party. The state of the Congress suits Pawar, who if he had his way, could engineer defections from the Congress to the NCP in Maharashtra if such a situation arises. However, the reason for his apparent reluctances is because of a three-party government there. This could happen at a later stage and should not come as a surprise for anyone. What is most important is that Congress in order to exercise its claim, should elect, a leader, who could be acceptable to other Opposition parties as well. The Gandhis are ruled out and the only two or three leaders of any stature, who could help stitch a coalition, if provided an opportunity of heading the Congress are former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, and former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Nobody else would qualify for the leadership role, which could go to either Mamata Banerjee, who just humbled the BJP in West Bengal, and to someone from the Indo-Gangetic plain, depending on the circumstances.
Akhilesh Yadav could be a major player, either behind the scenes or in front, if he wins Uttar Pradesh next year. Other names may crop up once 2024 draws nearer. The reality of today’s politics is that there are many political parties, who despite being in the Opposition, do not wholeheartedly oppose the BJP or the NDA. The two Telugu parties for instance in Andhra and Telangana as well as the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha are examples. Arvind Kejriwal, who leads the AAP, also believes that at some later stage, he could be a major player for the top job in the country. He would certainly throw in his hat in the ring if he was to win in Punjab and Uttarakhand next year.
But the state of politics at this moment is extremely fluid and could change anytime. One week is a long time in politics and there are three more years to go. Chickens should not be counted till they are hatched.