With the campaign for the third and final phase of Bihar polls coming to an end on Thursday, there are indications that it is going to be a neck and neck fight in the state.
However, there is also a perceptible change in the situation which was after the first phase of voting. Several rallies by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and changed strategy of the BJP have made an impact on the overall situation.
If politics of polarisation on the basis of incidents that took place in the last few days in the country worked, then Bihar poll results may be like those of Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka Assembly elections.
What will be interesting then to see as to which political outfit emerges the single-largest party. Indications so far suggest that the RJD is ahead of all. The Congress and the JD-U are fighting for third and fourth number. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has played a big gambit by announcing not to contest election in future. Obviously, an emotional card to woo the voters back who seem to be displeased with him.
Experts say that if voters’ anger subsides in the last phase and one to two per cent voters changed their mind and neutral voters also support the ruling coalition, then NDA may be benefited. In such a situation if Congress lags behind then the fight will be neck and neck.
If in the final phase, if forward classes keep aside their anger against Nitish under the influence of Modi charisma, then the position of JDU might improve which will benefit BJP directly.
Meanwhile, the BJP has changed its strategy after the first phase of polling. The saffron outfit focused on national issues and organised more rallies of the PM. It also focused on its seats so that it could emerge as a big party after the outcome. The PM also focused on Jammu and Kashmir, Article 370 and the issue of ‘jungle raj’ in his rallies. In the meantime, France incident and issue of offering namaz in a temple in UP seemed to be creating a polarising effect in some manner. Congress raised questions on statements of Asaduddin Owaisi accusing him of helping BJP.
If these issues cut ice with the forward class voters, who are said to be upset with Nitish, then they can go with NDA. There is no denying that the BJP was also looking for issues that could polarize the voters. Importantly, number of Muslim voters is huge in the third and last phase of Bihar elections.
At the same time, the RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav did not also spare any effort to woo the voters. But Congress and Left parties also need to win their seats. Experts say that left parties are performing well but Congress is doing good. Congress made a mistake by contesting on more seats as it could not give strong candidates. With this in view, Congress is relying on Tejashwi. If Congress does not cross 30 seats then JDU will move ahead of it making it difficult for Tejashwi to touch the magic figure. CM Nitish Kumar played an emotional card on the last day of campaigning. If the gambit works and forward classes return to him then Bihar can give the result like Karnataka and MP on 10 November, which means the politics of horse-trading will be seen in the state.