Noted election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known as the “Prediction Professor,” has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election. Lichtman, who accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 and Joe Biden’s win in 2020, uses a system he created called the “Keys to the White House” for his predictions. The “Keys to the White House” is a set of 13 true-or-false questions designed to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of presidential candidates. If a candidate has six or more keys in their favor, they are likely to win the election.
At the beginning of the 2024 election year, the Democrats were automatically granted one key due to President Biden’s incumbency. According to Lichtman’s latest analysis, Kamala Harris, the Democratic front-runner, currently holds six keys. These include the primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma. Lichtman told News Nation that “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”
The Republicans currently hold three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma. However, there are still four keys yet to be determined. These include the third-party factor, which is significant due to Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presence, as well as keys for social unrest, foreign military failure, and foreign military success.
Lichtman indicates that the Democrats would be projected to lose if they lose three more keys according to his formula. This means that while Kamala Harris currently has the advantage, the outcome could still change depending on how these undetermined factors play out.