After the deadly Pahalgam attack, India and Pakistan have both made efforts to garner international support. India had briefed diplomats from various nations, while PM Modi spoke with world leaders, including US President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Italian PM Giorgia Meloni.
Saudi Arabia, the UK, and Iran also intervened, attempting to mediate between the two nuclear nations. Despite widespread global empathy for India and recognition of Pakistan’s history with terrorism, a few countries continue to back Pakistan in Pahalgam attack.
However, Pakistan’s expectations of meaningful support appear unrealistic if tensions escalate into a military conflict.
Usual Suspects of Pahalgam Attack: China and Turkey
Pakistan can rely on China and Turkey for verbal support, but neither will assist in a full-scale war. Although China has been an ally for many years, it has never actively assisted Pakistan in previous wars.
China supplies weapons and technical assistance but has always avoided direct involvement in Pakistan’s wars. With its priority on bettering ties with India and its other strategic objectives, China is not likely to initiate a new front in South Asia.
Turkey, led by President Erdogan, has emerged as a leader of the Muslim world. Although Turkey is a major arms supplier to Pakistan, its assistance is limited. Turkey’s arms are effective and modern, but increasing production would be time-consuming.
The circumstances may change before Turkey’s assistance reaches Pakistan, rendering its assistance useless in the short run.
Diminishing Role of the US
A former major ally, the US no longer regards Pakistan as central to its strategic interests. In the Cold War, Pakistan played an essential role in balancing Soviet influence. Presently, India is the US’s strategic partner in South Asia, providing a counterweight against China.
The US-India connection is now more important than the US-Pakistan relationship. In case of war, the US will not fight for Pakistan, further diminishing Pakistan’s diplomatic clout.
Maldives and Bangladesh: Limited Influence
Pakistan has received some backing from neighboring nations such as Maldives and Bangladesh. These nations, however, possess limited military influence or international presence. Their support comes in the form of symbols and does not provide any real assistance during a war.
Both countries have intimate relations with Pakistan due to recent political changes, but would not shift the balance of an India-Pakistan war.
Emerging Realization for Pakistan
Pakistan’s dependence on foreign aid has always been the cornerstone of its foreign policy. But its erstwhile allies are no longer dependable. The changing global and regional dynamics put Pakistan in a quandary. It has to re-strategize, emphasizing de-escalation instead of relying on foreign allies who might not come to its rescue when the need arises.
Pakistan’s allies might not be there when it need them specially amid Pahalgam attack. The evolving global order indicates that Pakistan will have to battle major challenges. Without the assistance of strong allies, it could be compelled to fight India alone.
