A decade after it was rolled out with great expectations, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is running into increasing uncertainty. Once planned as a revolutionary $50 billion project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), CPEC is now marred by delayed momentum, increasing security risks, and waning investor interest.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping toured Pakistan in April 2015, he inked multiple agreements that were the first signs of what was promised to be a monumental overhaul of Pakistan’s economy and infrastructure. Those expectations have been largely under-delivered on, though. Nikkei reported that only 38 of the 92 CPEC projects were completed, with 31 more than $22 billion worth still waiting to get under way.
Experts blame economic instability, poor governance, and increasing attacks on Chinese nationals for the slowdown. “The project has nearly come to a halt,” said Ghulam Ali of the Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies.
The coastal city of Gwadar once so optimistically termed the “future Singapore of South Asia” has especially fallen short. Ongoing power outages continue, a coal-fired plant is still not built, and just $890 million of CPEC money has been invested there. Not even the opening of an international airport has triggered promised development. Gwadar’s plans were “misplaced from the start,” said one ex-official, placing more blame on Pakistan’s inefficiencies than China.
Security has become a serious issue. More than 20 Chinese nationals have been murdered in targeted attacks since 2021, predominantly in Balochistan. Analysts say that unless Pakistan deals with these threats, the future of CPEC is bleak.
Even official talk of a new era referred to as “CPEC 2.0,” such as the long-held-up ML-1 railway expansion, has seen no significant new Chinese investments announced. Experts say Beijing’s excitement is fading while it remains officially committed, its deeper involvement seems to be diminishing.
