Did ‘Sachin Pilot factor’ spark Congress’s downfall?

As the BJP secured a comfortable win in Rajasthan, there is speculation that the Congress suffered due to infighting in the ranks, particularly the Sachin Pilot factor.
The BJP significantly advanced in eastern Rajasthan, known for its prominent Gujjar community. Speculations prior to the election suggested that the Gujjar community expressed discontent over Sachin Pilot, a prominent Gujjar leader, not being appointed as Chief Minister despite the Congress’s victory in 2018.
Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy, Sachin Pilot, engaged in conflict for a significant portion of the past five years. Despite the central leadership’s intervention, persuading the leaders to set aside their differences in the lead-up to the elections, the perception of a divided Congress had already permeated among the public. The party high command’s intervention, though made, is believed to have come a little too late.
This internal strife potentially led to the Congress losing support from the Gujjar community, particularly in the eastern Rajasthan region, where the community wields influence in around 12 seats. In the previous Assembly election, when Pilot, a Gujjar, served as the state Congress president and was anticipated to become the chief minister if the party emerged victorious, the Congress performed well in the region.
In 2020, a revolt spearheaded by Pilot nearly led to the downfall of the Ashok Gehlot government, resulting in his removal as Deputy Chief Minister and dismissal as the State Congress Chief. Despite concerted efforts by the Congress to project a unified front in their campaign, including appeals from Pilot urging people to support the party, the results indicate a failure to effectively convey the message. In the 11 eastern Rajasthan districts with 59 Assembly seats, the BJP secured 38 seats, marking a gain of at least 20 seats from 2018, while the Congress secured 19 seats out of 59 this time.
However, the BJP’s triumph is not exclusively attributed to the shifts in eastern Rajasthan. An examination of western Rajasthan reveals a dominance of the saffron party in districts like Jaisalmer, Bikaner, and Barmer, where the Congress had previously held sway.
In the case of prominent figures, Ashok Gehlot secured victory in Sardarpura with a margin exceeding 26,000 votes, while Sachin Pilot emerged victorious in the Tonk assembly constituency with a margin of 29,475. Former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, a BJP leader, clinched victory in Jhalrapatan for the fifth consecutive time.