WHY ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS MATTER SO MUCH TO CONGRESS AND BJP

With polling on 6 April, it’s finally the end of this round of Assembly polls in all the states except West Bengal. The official reason why the polls in West Bengal were so staggered is the expected level of violence that has marred polling in the state. And this is not new, for the state shares a history of revenge violence between various cadres on the ground—earlier it was the Left vs TMC, and now its TMC vs BJP

However, what is important is the stakes at these polls. Let’s begin with the Prime Minister himself who has staked a lot in these elections—as he does with almost every election including local body ones in Hyderabad. But while the BJP has few stakes in Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu, its stakes in Assam and West Bengal are high. Both these states for one will see the fallout of the controversial CAA Act, though in different ways. It is important for the BJP to retain Assam to show that it is not losing its hold over the Northeast, despite the CAA. Moreover, while the BJP has more than one strong regional leader in Assam, the Congress lacks a face. But what the Congress has is a formidable alliance and if the party manages to wrest the state away from the BJP, then it would go a long way in proving its leadership skills to the rest of the opposition.

In fact, Rahul Gandhi has curiously not been so involved in the Assam campaign as he should have been. Instead, he is focusing his energies in taking the Left head on in Kerala (instead of the BJP in Assam). Yes, he is an MP from the state but still one wonders as to why he is focusing so much in one state and not the other. The fact that the South has always been more receptive to the Congress, especially the Gandhis, cannot be his sole criteria. There has to be some strategy at play. Could it be that his advisors see Kerala as an easier battle than Assam and so are hoping to use this state as a case study for Rahul Gandhi’s comeback bid as party chief.

Don’t forget that the Congress’ inner party polls are slated after the Assembly polls. If the Congress fails to make an impression in these polls (this means winning one state for sure, two would help), then the G-23 has let it be known that it won’t let Rahul Gandhi’s candidature go uncontested. True, none of the G-23 has the heft and appeal of a Gandhi (within the Congress) but election losses have dimmed that appeal over time and if Rahul and his team do not deliver a win then it may encourage others to join the G-23. That is why there is a lot more at stake for the Congress than it is for the BJP.

However, if the BJP does win West Bengal then it will raise a lot of markers in the national narrative of the day. For one, this would prove that elections are fought more on national than state issues, for the BJP has talked more of Hindutva and CAA than it has about development and other local issues on the ground. Mamata Banerjee in her letter to the Opposition leaders has already raised a flag about federalism being in danger. And judging by what happened in Delhi recently and the way the Bengal campaign is being run, she could have a point. However, the elections in Bengal have only reached their half way mark. This battle is still being fought.