Introduction
There is an image that portrays a sense of loss and an immense tragedy. A lady still wearing her wedding bangles sitting next to her slain husband, a young Naval Officer, in a pristine meadow surrounded by a dense forest. No words are required to explain the emotions.
On 22nd April, Pakistan attempted to shatter the peace in Kashmir, leaving 26 dead who were targeted based mainly on their religious identity. A brutal window of terror has been opened with the attendant heartrending loss of innocent lives. Undoubtedly, it is an attempt to create a communal divide. The attack at Baisaran meadow, a scenic spot in Pahalgam, is horrific and occurred at a time when the dividends of peace were being felt in the Valley and tourism was on the rise.
The timing of the attack is also significant and can’t be ignored. It has taken place at a time when the Indo-US relations are getting closer and the Vice President of US was visiting India. Further, the Indo-Saudi relations are also at its peak with the Prime Minister visiting Riyadh on the day of incident. Pakistan suffering from an economic crisis and increasing incident in Baluchistan including the Jaffar train incident in March and Khyber-Pakhtunistan feels the best way to divert the attention of its population is to attack India. Pakistan felt that the peace dividends in Kashmir was now visible.
For the Pakistan Army, India remains its obsession which is evident from the remarks of the General Asim Munir lately in which he talked of the two-nation theory. Addressing the Overseas Pakistani Convention in Islamabad, he said “Our stance is absolutely clear, it was our jugular vein it will be our jugular vein, we will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle”.
Pakistan’s Army realizes that it can not take India on in a conventional contest having lost all of the four wars it had fought. Keeping this in mind its focus was on three issues; firstly, developing a nuclear capability. Secondly, carrying out a proxy conflict by using terrorists and thirdly, cultivating collusivity with China. It feels that the first and third can prevent a strong reaction by Indian while the second continues to bleed India by thousand cuts. Hence, 22nd April can be seen as a continuum of the attack on Parliament in 2001, attack in Mumbai in 2008, Uri in 2016 and Pulwama in 2019. Incidentally, it was only after the last two incidents India reacted by targeting terrorist bases across the border.
For Pakistan, its relevance in the Kashmir narrative is evaporating. This is evident from the call of the Bandh given post attack in the Kashmir. While terrorists have attacked on victims based on their religious identity, the local people came out and risked their own life to rescue those caught in the attack. Further, the shutdown in Kashmir was initiated by the citizens of Kashmir itself against the terrorism thereby sending a clear and loud message to terrorist that their roots will not be allowed to grow there. This seems to be a defining moment.
The terrorist attack has been claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), clearly has the backing of the Pakistan Army. Pakistan will of course use the cloak of plausible deniability to prevent itself from being held accountable for the terror attack and thereby, mold world opinion in its favour.
The fact is that India is dealing with a highly professional and ideological neighbour who’s decision making structure are bereft of any political constraints. In the light of this we need to evaluate our response matrix to ensure that we remain one step ahead in the escalatory ladder. A whole nation approach to tackle Pakistan is the only solution.
Unfortunately, in our bit to show the normalcy, we seem to have lowered the guard as far as area domination by security personnel is concerned. As per reports, there was no Security Post in the area which is frequented by a large number of tourists.
Poor intelligence is one of the causes of the incident. Intelligence failure due to the fallacy of peace has created intelligence voids. The intelligence grid must be restored to prevent both infiltration and escape. We need to use better technology to counter the terrorists, as well as identify the sympathisers. As such an act can’t be carried out in the absence of local sympathisers.
Terrorism a Tactic of the Weak
Terrorism will remain a tactic of the weak who lack the courage and strength to fight militarily. A comprehensive solution is thus needed to counter and prevent such attacks. The Pahalgam attack is simply not just an attack to internationalise the Kashmir issue but is also aimed at destabilising India internally and creating a communal divide.
Our response while being strong must be guided by professional inputs and not by mass public incitement or sentiments. Across the globe, countries have strongly condemned this incident and came out in support of India this includes US and China. The Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong said, “Shocked by the attack in Pahalgam and condemn (it). Deep condolences for the victims and sincere sympathies to the injured and the bereaved families.” And stated that they “oppose terrorism of all forms”.
In a call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, President Trump strongly condemned the terror attack and expressed full support to India to bring to justice the perpetrators of the “heinous attack”. In a post he had said that “India and the United States stand together in the fight against terror”.
Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson also condemned the attack and expressed sympathy to the families of those who lost their lives. “Such acts threaten the security and stability of the region.”
The Pakistan Army has suffered many losses in its border skirmishes with Afghanistan. Pakistan has recently commenced the expulsion of Afghan refugees across the Durand Line and also carried out air strikes against Afghanistan. There is a sense in Pakistan that the TTP BLA have been given safe sanctuary in Afghanistan. Pakistan also feels that there is an improvement of India’s relationship with Afghanistan.
India’s response to this internal security challenge is being watched by those across the border. There is no doubt that the incident was pre-meditated and carried out with religious orientation factoring in a new dimension in the terror matrix. The gravity of the challenge was evident when the Prime Minister quickly cut short his trip to Saudi Arabia and Home Minister rushed to Kashmir While the response matrix is being debated what matters is that we have to be a step ahead in the escalatory ladder but can’t be impulsive irrespective of the domestic compulsions. One must keep in mind that often suppression of violence is mistaken for establishment of peace. For enduring peace, it is not only elimination of violence but good governance, deradicalization and denial of space for terrorists to operate.
India’s Reactions
All options ranging from political, diplomatic economic and military will be analysed. Which option is chosen or what combination of options are chosen will be exercised. Some of them have already been announced. These include suspension of Indus Water Treaty, closing of the Attari Border with immediate effect, the expulsion of diplomats, reduction of staff of High Commission’s from 55 to 30, Pakistan Military Advisors being declared persona non grata and an order for some Pakistani visa holders to leave within 48 hours.
At the conclusion of yesterday’s CCS’s meeting to review the overall security situation, the Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said, “that the perpetrators of the attack will be brought to justice and their sponsors held to account”. He also spoke about the recent extradition of Tahawwur Hussain Rana and said that India will be unrelenting in the pursuit of those who have committed the act of terror and have conspired to make them possible.
The escalation ladder has many steps ranging from economic, diplomatic, political and military. Military steps could include surgical strikes and surgical air strikes which have taken place earlier. Post the attack on the Indian Parliament, we also saw Operation Parakram being launched with a large-scale mobilisation of troops. The range of military option is immense across all spectrums. These include localised action across the LoC to precision strike by air and long-range vectors against high value targets, targeting of LeT and JeM ideologues and end with conventional war.
Multiple means and methods exist within the full spectrum. These could also include a naval economic blockade and the activation of the LoC by suspending the existing Ceasefire Agreement. The fact is that time for strategic patience is now in the past.
Speaking at Arjan Singh Memorial Lecture, Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh condemned the attack and assured that “will take every step that is necessary and appropriate and we will not only trace those who perpetrated this incident. We will also reach those who, hiding behind the scenes, have conspired to carry out such a ‘napak’ (impure) act on the soil of India.”
While retaliation is inevitable, the manner in which we propose to respond is best left to those currently in authority. We need to meet this challenge with resolve and ensure that our response acts as a deterrent for preventing reoccurrence of such instances.
Conclusion
Since August 2019, India has achieved great success in containing terror in J&K. the security forces ensured that terrorists were on the backfoot. Tourism was on the rise and the local economy was benefitting. But while a large number of tourists is a visible sign of peace but their presence always needed to be weighed against such black swan events.
The massacre in Pahalgam seems to have turned the clock back. The attack is a clear reminder that the state remains under the constant threat from the forces that seek to cause instability. The assault therefore demands an appropriate strategic response while simultaneously there is also a need to introspect dispassionately as to why it took place.
The government has acted wisely in announcing a series of diplomatic measures. There is no doubt when anger and grief dominate, a muscular response comes to the fore. But the use of kinetics has its own consequences. What is more important is prevention of such events.
The primary perpetrator is Pakistan and its proxies only understand the language of coercion and violence and not rationality. Every act of theirs has to be responded with firm and punitive measures. While at the same time we need to be aware of Israel’s action of extreme against Hamas which pushed by sentiment has not provided a solution.
India must continue to respond decisively to terror attacks through enhanced intelligence, precision operations and by holding their direct perpetrators and state sponsors accountable. The Pakistan Army must pay for its support to terrorists We need to also continue our efforts to blacklist individuals and groups under UN sanctioned regime and maintain pressure in forums like FATF.
Responsible statecraft and deterrence are the key. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that the attackers and conspirators would be punished “beyond their imagination”.
The Pahalgam attack should be seen as a watershed moment and the solution lies in an all government approach to fundamentally alter the benefits to Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism. As we all know the truth is that a moth-eaten Pakistan still remains a global hub of terror, despair and darkness.
