Delhi has delivered a very comprehensive win for the BJP which will be ruling the capital city after 1998. The messaging in terms of optics is significant since Delhi is the capital city. Which is also one reason why the BJP is taking its own time to deliberate on the next CM. While the obvious choice would be the giant killer Parvesh Verma but the party does not hand out trophies on the basis on that sole criteria alone. Even after she wrested Amethi from Rahul Gandhi in the 2019 Lok Sabha, Smriti Irani was not given any preferential treatment. The party will want to send the right message and the current debate ranges around either a woman candidate or a Sikh. Given the Sikh community’s angst against the Modi Government over the farm reform bills and also the fact that Punjab is slated to go to polls next year, the choice could be a candidate from the Sikh community. We are told that the name would be announced after the Prime Minister returns from Paris where he has gone to attend the AI Summit.
Also, what will be the impact on Governance? During the campaign the Prime Minister had announced that the BJP would continue with the AAP’s welfare model and there will be no roleback, iN fact the BJP had gone ahead and topped many of the promises made by the AAP, such as increasing the monthly allowance to women from 2100 to 2500. But there is an apprehension amongst the middle class which was wooed by the BJP with the Rs 12 lakh tax break in the annual budget that there is a plan in play to recover the budget tax break. There are already rumours that the property tax in the city will be raised by one and a half percent. Other taxes will probably follow, for the BJP doesn’t forget that this is a city that had spurned it for so long.
Now what about the Congress? There has been much celebration at the party office which is somewhat puzzling as the party failed to get a single seat and in fact 47 MLA candidates, lost their deposit. However it did increase its vote share and more important, ensured that the Aam Admi Party lost in as many as 14 seats. The AAP will find it very hard to fashion a comeback anytime soon given the fact that many of its stalwarts lost the elections, including its party chief and former CM Arvind Kejriwal himself. Hence the Congress senses a chance of winning back the space that the AAP had wrested from it, as well as taking revenge for Kejriwal’s role in defeating Sheila Dikshit. But the party would do well to realise that its work has just begun. It needs to identify a strong leader and build on the party morale. Sandeep Dikshit has shown he could be groomed as an effective heir to his mother’s legacy. Ajay Maken will also make a bid and he has Rahul Gandhi’s support. There are others as well. But the decision should be taken now and not on the eve of the next Delhi election.
The impact of the Delhi polls on the INDIA bloc is also significant for the Congress has proved that it can still stand up and be counted – even if it is a spoiler. This is something Tejaswi Yadav will take into account when negotiating seats in Bihar. Congress leaders are also pointing to the Milkipur assembly bypoll where the SP took on the BJP and lost. So one is not quite sure whether the Congress actions in Delhi have actually cemented its position within the INDIA bloc, or rung a death knell for the alliance.
As for the Aam Admi Party, well Arvind Kejriwal has his task cut out before him as his legal troubles will only mount. He has to choose between Atishi and Gopal Rai as the leader of the opposition in the Delhi assembly. Plus there will always be the fear of his MLAs being poached by the BJP. Additionally, Bhagwat Singh Mann will now be even more difficult to control by the Delhi leadership (read Kejriwal). Will Punjab be the next to fall? And if so, then will AAP hold together or will Kejriwal fashion another role for himself?
All in all, Delhi has set of a very interesting dynamo effect in national politics
