A shocking and tragic terror attack on 25th April 2025 at Pahalgam by state-sponsored terrorists from Pakistan prompted India to take a bold strategy and diplomatic steps to act decisively against Pakistan. Due to the consequences of it, India has put the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 held in hold. This action has put the Treaty on the Centre stage of IndoPakistan relations.
India’s bold step to hold the Indus Waters Treaty reflects a paradigm shift in Indian diplomacy, as the Indus Waters Treaty had not been affected since 1960, even during the Indo-Pakistan conflict of 1965, 1971, and the Kargil war of 1999, and other major Indo-Pak standoffs. The Indian action will realign the mechanism for the regional water security management of Transboundary water resources as well as the future perspective and gold post for Indo-Pak relations. After the expiration of the short-term Standstill Agreement of 1947, which provided a status quo to all the administrative arrangements existing between the British Crown and the state would continue unaltered until new arrangements were made.
On April 1, 1948, India stopped water flow from canals into Pakistan. However, the Inter-Dominion Accord of May 4, 1948, resumed water flow from India to the Pakistan parts of the Indus basin, subject to the annual payment. This was the first time India exercised Water as a diplomatic Aqua-weapon. Later, Pakistan approached an international forum in 1951 against this arrangement. Hence, after the nineyear-long deliberation on 19 September 1960, India and Pakistan signed the water treaty, which was effective retrospectively from 1 April 1960. The Treaty was formalized and fine lines under the MB of the United Nations, the World Bank, led by president black. The Other signatories to the Treaty were International Bank for reconstruction and development ( IBRD ) World Bank as a broker and other countries like Australia, Canada, West Germany, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the United States is a partner to the plan of external financing under the ages of IBRD funds for developing infrastructure for the water management in a Indus water system basis in Pakistan as during the process of partition newly defined international border divided Indus basin in a such a fashion that leaving Pakistan as the lower riparian and India as the upper riparian. Most of the irrigation canals came into Pakistan where whereas the major water reservoirs, namely Madhopur on the Ravi River and the other at Ferozepur on the Sutlej River, continue to remain with India. Due to this highly complex pre-independence situation, India was obligated to support Pakistan by extending a fixed contribution of £62.06 million (approximately $131 million at the time) toward the cost of new irrigation infrastructure in Pakistan in ten instalments as an obligation. Being an international transboundary river treaty, the Indus Waters Treaty is guided by the key principles to enhance and foster cooperation and sustainable management of shared water resources based on equitability, preserve human and environmental ecosystems, thereby leading the path of peace and stability in the region.
The treaty delimited and fixed the rights and obligations of both countries concerning the use of the waters of the Indus River system. Pakistan has unrestricted control of 70% of the western rivers like Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, located in India, with a mean annual flow of 99 billion cubic meters. The remaining 30% of water of western rivers is available for India’s limited use for irrigation as well as unrestricted non-consumptive uses such as power generation, navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc. However, India got control over Eastern Rivers, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej with a mean annual flow of 41 billion cubic meters (33-million-acre feet) for water utilization. The treaty has detailed regulations for India regarding building projects over the western rivers. The treaty has well welldefined three-tiered mechanism to resolve disputes. Article IX, Annexures F AND G have specified three measures, including a Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) having commissioners from both India and Pakistan as a forum of exchange of Hydrological data and other measures to implement the treaty. If needed, may approach a Neutral Expert and finally through a designated Court of Arbitrators. It is worth mentioning that the present role of the World Bank is highly Limited as a facilitator to initiate the process of dispute settlement related to the implementation of the Indus water treaty. The role of other countries that were signatories during the finalization of the treaty was confined to a period of 10 years to support Pakistan financially in developing water management infrastructure only. Though there is no specific clause placed in the Treaty regarding unilateral abrogation, Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties provides enough scope to review the provisions of the treaty in the basic changes of circumstances from the time of implementation of the treaty. Since the Treaty is based on good faith and mutual friendship and relations there any act of omission of such principles, like enemy actions, acts of terror, and other unlawful measures, occurs, it provides the scope for any Country to abrogate the Treaty. Hens India has all right to act against the wishful intentions of Pakistan. Though the Indus Waters Treaty has sustained for more than 65 years despite a very volatile Indo-Pakistan relationship. However, the treaty remained in question due to its very significant tilt of water distribution towards Pakistan. The treaty is also silent on issues like the protection of the environment and the ecosystem of the region. The J&K legislative assembly has passed the resolution in 2003 and again in 2016, demanding revision, citing that the treaty is greatly influencing the growth of irrigation and hydroelectric projects in the state. A public litigation PIL is also pending in the Supreme Court of India against the treaty and to declare it unconstitutional. The first action on the need to review of treaty was raised by India in 2016 as a counter response to the attack on an army camp in Uri by Pakistan. The government of India has also officially communicated to Pakistan in Jan 2023 and again in Sep 2024 to renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty, as the actions and intentions of Pakistan are against the spirit and objectives of the treaty. India has to exercise various available options to implement the treaty held in abeyance. As such, the very first measure is to ensure complete stoppage of a huge volume of surplus overflow of Sutlej water from the Firozpur barrage, and Ravi water from the Madhpur barrage. As an Intermediate measure, there is a need to develop rapid and trans river canalization in northern India. As a long-term measure, India has to develop more reservoirs and hydro projects in Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh. India has to gear up with its full throttle to negotiate with China on the creation of infrastructure development, hydro projects, and energy systems out of the Indus water river system as a part of CPEC in the illegally occupied part of Kashmir by Pakistan. The dispute of the Indus Waters Treaty may influence other trans boundary river water treaties between India and neighbouring countries. It includes the Mahakali and Kosi Agreements with Nepal, the Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh, and most significantly, is Brahmaputra database relationship with China. Hence, India has to redesign strategies to handle international pressure to maintain sustainable relations and arrangements of the water sharing mechanism. The future war will be based on the control over Cyber, Space, Energy, and effective control of water and maritime resources. The Indus Waters Treaty is imbalanced, unrealistic, and obsolete in the present form and scenario. India must stick to its guns; we have the legitimate right to abrogate the existing Indus Waters Treaty and renegotiate sustainable India-centric and Kashmir-oriented transboundary river water and ecosystem management with Pakistan. The treaty deserves abrogation with immediate effect. Major General J.K.S. Parihar, Sena Medal, Bar to Vishisht Seva Medal (Retd.), Former Additional Director General, AFMS and Expert on Defence and International Strategic Affairs
