Who would have thought at the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in January 2025 that three four months down the line, he would cause so much angst in India or have the Indian public mood turn against him so drastically? The expectation was that his second term would be much of the same as the first term, and in fact would further the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership that the two nations had spoken of in February 2020—“anchored in mutual trust, shared interests, goodwill and robust engagement of their citizens”.
In fact the positivity of India-US relations during Trump’s first term was perceived to have gone missing towards the end of President Joe Biden’s term. So even though President Biden described India-US relations as the “most consequential” of the 21st century, his apparent cognitive decline towards the end of his presidency allowed certain people surrounding him to run their own agendas, often seen to be at cross purposes with India’s. Hence, it was with much hope that Indians looked forward to President Trump coming to office, all the more reason why the disillusionment is so strong. India did not have a knee-jerk reaction to Donald Trump’s promise to impose a tariff of 26% on it.
It instead decided to negotiate with him, leading to talk about a bi-lateral trade agreement between the two countries. But then the Pahalgam terror attack took place, followed by Operation Sindoor and a ceasefire, post which President Trump decided to take credit by saying that it was his mediation that had prevented a nuclear war between India and Pakistan, a claim that has not been given any credence by India, which has been firm that no mediation took place and it was Pakistan that approached India for a ceasefire. But when some political capital can be made even from a “fiction”, where the great blond superhero stops a nuclear war and saves the world, why blame Donald Trump for refusing to let go of that opportunity? Hence, like the proverbial “Jack in the box”, the American President has been popping up almost every third day and boasting about how he stopped a nuclear war.
For Indians, it has not helped that he has made trade a precondition to cessation of hostilities, as that immediately casts a shadow on any future defence deals that India might have with the US. In spite of all this, his chest-thumping would have been tolerated by India and Indians but for Trump’s hyphenation of India with Pakistan, the victim of terrorism with the terrorist, as well as the world’s largest democracy and fourth largest economy, with a failed terror state like Pakistan. Not only that, President Trump sees Pakistan as a brilliant country with brilliant people, building many great things. Of course it is not known what great things Pakistan has been building, given its economy is tottering on the edge of collapse and it has to survive on bailouts by the IMF.
So what changed between Trump’s first and second terms, where Pakistan went from a pariah terror state whose funds were blocked, to a brilliant country with brilliant people? From all accounts, it seems that Trump is getting some terrible advice on the Indian subcontinent, with many of his advisers having financial interests in Pakistan, specifically in the crypto deal that his close friend and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff ’s son, Zach Witkoff has struck. There are also persons like Gentry Beach, who claim to be advisers to President Trump, and wax eloquent about Pakistan.
According to media reports, Zach Witkoff believes that Pakistan is sitting on trillions of dollars’ worth rare earth minerals/elements. Rare earth elements are crucial for the semiconductor industry, and Trump is desperate to win the semiconductor race against China, which already controls around 90% of the global supply of rare earth elements. So is it a surprise that Trump has done a U-turn on Pakistan? Add to this the Qatar factor. Money from Doha is running in Washington D.C.’s veins, so much so that an Al Qaeda terrorist like Jolani now given a veneer of respectability as Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is embraced by the American President, while Israel’s security concerns are ignored.
The way Trump has turned time-tested American policies on their head, whatever be the reason, the world is wary about the next steps the US President will take a President who has shown that he likes his expensive gifts from foreign heads of states, and is not averse to insulting other heads of state, even if they are his guests, in front of television cameras in the Oval Office. Whether all this makes him appear a winner to his voting base or turns him into a lame duck, will be known in the midterm elections next year. In the meanwhile, if Trump continues in this manner, it’s tough days ahead for Indian diplomacy in particular. Dealing with Trump is increasingly looking like walking through a minefield, with no knowledge of what blows up next. India’s foreign policy establishment has its task cut out. It needs to factor in Trump’s personality and his personal interests when trying to cut a deal with him.
