At a time when the US and China are busy fighting a tariff war, it is interesting to see the sudden outreach by Beijing to New Delhi. A narrative is being sought to be built that the elephant and the dragon—India and China—should be tangoing together against the “wild man” of the West, President Donald Trump. There has been a distinctive softening of the hostile tone that Chinese media have always adopted towards India. Also an attempt is being made to mainstream the idea that Indians have come a long way in the last five years after the Galwan incident of 2020, and that they understand the benefits of normalization of India-China ties. The Chinese embassy in Delhi has started public outreach programs, and is posting saccharine sweet videos on X, singing paeans about India-China relations. A push is also coming from experts on East Asia that India should stop looking at the United States as a strategic partner and come into the ambit of China’s sphere of influence, because that is where the future is.
Given the sudden intensity of such moves, there is reason to believe that President Trump has been able to push China into a corner, and all the belligerence by Beijing on display may not be telling the real story of how much China is likely to hurt if trade and interaction stop between the two countries. The US will of course get a beating, but China, whose economy is not exactly in the best of health, will get an equally serious body blow. China wants to reserve all its resources to fight the US, and hence, is trying to ensure that its neighbourhood stays peaceful at such a critical time. There is no other reason why the Chinese, who have not shown much interest in being conciliatory towards India on any issue, be it border or trade, should suddenly have an epiphany about India’s potential as a friend.
China’s actual actions fly in the face of the sudden light that Beijing seems to have seen. The problems that have been hobbling India-China relations still exist. Take the case of the Line of Actual Control. Disengagement may have taken place in eastern Ladakh between the two sides, but de-escalation is a long way off. If China is serious about normalizing relations with India, the first thing it should do is stop building military and dual-use infrastructure on its side of the LAC. There is no sign of that happening. Instead, the message that India is getting is about using Bangladesh to rattle India, by posing a threat to its Siliguri Corridor. It appears that some preliminary moves have been made about reviving an air base at Bangladesh’s Lalmonirhat, right next to the Siliguri Corridor—a base that Bangladesh is likely to give to the Chinese to operate. If that materializes, it will be an act of open hostility.
In fact, till date, China has done nothing to gain India’s confidence. There are media reports that claim that China has been discouraging Chinese companies like BYD from investing in India and directing them towards Vietnam and other ASEAN countries. China has also stopped Foxconn from sending Chinese workers to the latter’s iPhone factories in India. It is also delaying equipment supply to these factories. This is not the act of a country that is trying to make overtures to its biggest neighbour. This is a hostile act of trying to hobble its neighbour’s manufacturing abilities.
The reason for all this is that in China’s “Asian Century”, there is no place for India. It is a China-led century. India is at best a vassal state for it, a pesky problem that can pose a challenge to it in the future. There is zero resolution of the border issue. China hasn’t stopped claiming Indian territory as its own. China still doesn’t want India to be a veto wielding power of the UN Security Council. China is still backing Pakistan, and now Bangladesh, against India. China is actively working against India’s interests by supporting insurgent groups in the Northeast. China is a major source of all the cyberattacks against Indian interests. China seeking naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific will directly affect India’s naval interests. The list is much longer. In fact, now that China’s trade relations with the US are shaky at best, China will try to dump its products on India, among other countries. Hence, India needs to be very careful about China’s intentions. Neither does the leopard change its spots, nor does China.
India should not rush into China’s embrace by “normalizing” relations. Circumstances may appear to have changed, but in reality they haven’t. The LAC is still unmarked and a hot potato between the two countries.
There is no Hindi Chini bhai bhai, whatever the Chinese may be professing. That slogan died in 1962 and no amount of saccharine posts on X by the Chinese embassy in New Delhi can resurrect it..
