For how long did the “Coalition of the Willing” last—the coalition where the European countries including Britain were getting together to cook up an army of the “European Willing” to send troops to Ukraine to fight Russia? Possibly for two-three days—from 1 March, when Czech President Petr Pavel urged the formation of such a coalition, and was endorsed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the London conference on 2 March, to 4 March, when Donald Trump read out Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech to the US Congress, saying the Ukrainian President had agreed to toe the US line and discuss peace. Technically, the Coalition of the Willing exists, even though notionally, but there is no certainty about the direction they will take next. After all that huffing and puffing, the coalition appears fated to melt away, especially since Zelenskyy did a volt face following President Trump cutting off aid to Ukraine. And therein lies the rub, that there is no Coalition of the Willing without the US—and in this case, the US is simply unwilling.
To put matters in context, according to reports, the US spent as much as $8.4 trillion in defence in the last 10 years, compared to the rest of NATO’s $3.8 trillion. The discussion about a European army has been going on for years, but has not materialized till date. The Nato is primarily US-led and US-driven, with Washington D.C., being the security guarantor of the European countries. And it took a Donald Trump to see through the whole scheme of things—or “scam” as he might call it. No wonder the Europeans are trying desperately to bring the US to their side, and this even as their posturing continues about sending troops to Ukraine, without a thought about public opinion in their respective countries. Also, what sort of a European coalition will it be when Italy, Poland and Hungary, among others, have already refused to send troops to Ukraine? Apart from this there are logistical difficulties of having a mish-mash of militaries trying to come together and form a joint force. So neither does Europe have enough political will or military capacity to defend Ukraine, nor does it have popular support.
The EU countries are apparently worried about their own security and fear an attack by Russia, even though Vladimir Putin has been saying right from the beginning that he is not interested in expanding westward, as long as the West is not expanding eastward by allowing Ukraine to join Nato. In fact, the whole premise of Donald Trump’s peace plan is that the two warring sides will cease fire and freeze the conflict the way it is now. He believes that Russia will not break its word on a ceasefire if the Ukraine too does not—this is obviously because he has great faith in his negotiating skills, and most importantly is ready to treat Putin as a counterpart, unlike Joe Biden, who would start almost every conversation on Putin by calling him a killer. Biden just did not have the desire to make peace with Putin, the reason why his only summit meeting with the Russian leader on 16 June 2021 in Geneva ended in failure, and this was eight months prior to Russia invading Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Post the invasion, the US and European reaction to Putin has been unhinged. It is this trend that Donald Trump is trying to reverse and he believes that he has a shot at ensuring peace.
While the contours of Trump’s peace plan are yet to be revealed, what is apparent is that it hinges on both sides’ willingness to negotiate peace, with Trump’s personal involvement.
It seems that Zelenksyy’s maximalist demand of making Russia give up Crimea is not going to be realised, and Ukraine will have to live with status quo. Zelenskyy did not help his case first by picking a fight with President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance at the Oval Office, then by rushing to the Europeans and urging them to send troops to Ukraine to help him continue with the war. It was only when Trump announced the aid cut that he returned to his senses. In this context, it must be acknowledged that Trump not only understands the kind of power the United States has, but he knows how to exercise that power. No wonder Europe is in a state of “shock and awe”. But then for the Europeans it is a matter of their own relevance in a fast changing world order, where the pivot has shifted to the Indo-Pacific and Europe has ceased to be the centre of the world. They are waking up to this reality, and are not liking it. But they will have to give in, eventually, even as they struggle to find a proper place, a foothold, in the Trump era.
