ASSEMBLY POLL BUGLE DROWNS OUT FARMERS’ PROTESTS, CHINA AND COVID-19

Although the dates are still to be announced, preparations for the next round of Assembly polls are well and truly underway. The Prime Minister is getting into campaign mode and is expected to hit West Bengal with a blitzkrieg of rallies from next month. Since Mamata Banerjee’s stronghold is the BJP’s next target, expect to see him concentrate here the most, as well as Assam, a state the BJP hopes to retain despite the anti-CAA and NRC protests

In fact, most analysts agree that the CAA and NRC could backfire against the BJP in the Assam polls (hence the delay in framing the rules), but the Congress still has to get its act together post-Tarun Gogoi’s demise. And therein lies political salvation for the BJP. However, unlike West Bengal, the BJP has an able general leading the campaign in the resourceful Hemanta Biswa Sarma and a tried and tested CM face in Sarbanda Sonowal, hence that state is not high on the PM’s in-tray. West Bengal however is.

Which is why we see the Home Minister literally camping in the state, managing the campaign (along with the many defections from the TMC). And the PM is expected to bring the final push with his spate of rallies. However, from all accounts CM Mamata Banerjee is fighting hard and this would not be an easy state to wrest away. The anti-TMC vote too is divided with the Congress and the Left fighting against her. If—and this is a very big ask—the BJP does manage to wrest the state away from her, it won’t be because of a walk over from Didi. A fifteen-year anti-incumbency may however tilt the balance against her.

In Kerala—another state going to the polls, the BJP has a leader but lacks a campaign. With the “Metro Man” joining the BJP and more or less offering himself as the party’s CM face, the saffron party is back in the reckoning, even if it’s only for the benefit of political pundits. Puducherry has already seen an upset for the Congress even before the elections and there is talk that the Modi-led government at the Centre may impose Governor’s rule and delay the elections by another six months. 

Which leaves us with Tamil Nadu, a state where the BJP has little presence except as a junior partner to whoever rules the AIADMK. Right now, it is a seesaw between OPS and EPS but with Sasikala’s release and return that dynamics may change but perhaps not in time for the state polls. And with the DMK in the driver’s seat, the fate of the AIADMK may or may not matter in the coming Assembly elections. 

So, in the end, amidst all this poll talk—where are the issues that dominated the narrative for all of 2020. I am, of course, referring to Covid, China and the farmers’ protests. The Tikait brothers have said that they will campaign in West Bengal but will it be a poll issue there? Probably not.