CCP general secretary Xi Jinping went to Russia to shake hands with President Vladimir Putin and promised to deliver a new world order—together. He may have stopped short of expressing outright support for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but his camaraderie with Putin made it clear on which side of the geopolitical divide he stood. Not that this is something new. It has been long apparent that Xi had sided with Russia as its “no limits partner”—rather the overlord of an important vassal state. It’s just that a major section of western policymakers and commentariat had deluded themselves into believing that Xi would not try to bring Russia into his realm of influence and that an alliance between two of the most consequential nuclear powers of the 21st century would not come to define the ongoing Cold War 2.0. Worse, from all accounts, it seems the western leadership is yet to internalize the fact that the PRC is interested in only one thing, that is to rewrite the world with Chinese communist characteristics, where Xi’s empire is at the centre, while the rest are vassal states paying tribute to the Emperor; and that the PRC is working towards this goal with single-minded determination; that it is no longer the North Atlantic, with its focus on Russia that is the centre of geopolitical gravity, but the Indo-Pacific with the focus on China. But for the West’s Russia obsession, its obsession to “de-Russify” countries in the immediate neighbourhood of Russia that were formerly a part of the Soviet Union, the course of history might have been different. But for the sanctions imposed on Russia, from a time much before the Ukraine war, Putin wouldn’t have had to turn to Xi Jinping to survive. While deriding Putin for making Russia a colony of PRC, the West is ignoring its own role in pushing Moscow into Beijing’s arms. The contours of the China-Russia alliance emerged years before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. As far back as 2018, China accounted for over 15% of Russia’s total trade; Chinese technology had started flooding Russia; manufacturing was coming under the control of the Chinese; Huawei was rolling out 5G there; the defence ties between the two countries were strengthening by the day; the Chinese Han population was settling in the far eastern parts of Russia. And as we are witnessing in the Ukraine war, it is China that is primarily funding the Russian war efforts by being the largest buyer of Russia’s fossil fuel. What the West does not realise is that Xi Jinping is propping up Russia because the Ukraine war suits his interest, for it diverts the West’s energy, attention and resources from his malign activities in the Indo-Pacific and in other parts of the world. But then President Biden believes it is the same Xi who will act as peacemaker and persuade Putin not only to stop the war in Ukraine but also go back home by giving up all that he has seized until now, including Crimea in 2014. Chances are that President Biden will be terribly disillusioned if and when—most likely, when—Xi starts replenishing Putin’s depleting stock of materiel, just the way the US has been doing with Ukraine. In that case, it will be a proxy war between the US and PRC, which poses a threat to the whole world.
As for India, its geopolitical trajectory should not fall victim to the Russia-China alliance. As this writer has been writing for a long time, what is the guarantee that in case of a conflict between India and China, Russia won’t turn neutral, and maybe even stop the supply of materiel to India? It is imperative for India to quicken its pace of decoupling not just from China but also Russia. Old loyalties cannot keep India tied to Russia’s coattails. There is no place for sentimentality in geopolitics. Just as it has suited India’s interests to buy oil from Russia in these turbulent times, it’s India’s own interests that will have to dictate its distancing from Russia, sooner or later.
In conclusion, Xi, while leaving Russia, told Putin, “Right now there are changes, the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years. And we are the ones driving these changes, together.” It should serve as a warning to the West as well as to India.