Trump vs. Harris: Current Poll Trends and What They Mean for the 2024 Election

Kamala Harris has emerged as a prominent contender in the presidential race following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 election. Since Biden’s exit in July, Harris’s profile has surged in several polls, indicating a competitive match-up against Donald Trump.

Telegraph Poll Favors Harris

A recent Telegraph poll has forecasted Harris’s victory in the upcoming election, as she has steadily increased her lead over Trump. According to a survey by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Harris is projected to win crucial swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, similar to Biden’s 2020 strategy. Trump, however, is expected to secure Sun Belt states including Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Both candidates are tied at 47% in Nevada.

USA Today/Suffolk Poll Shows Harris Ahead

The latest USA Today/Suffolk Poll also indicates a potential Democratic victory. As of August 25-28, ahead of the September 10 debate, Harris leads Trump by 48-43%, within the margin of error. This poll, conducted with 1,000 likely voters, reflects a positive outlook for Harris following the Democratic National Convention.

Harris Leading in Other Polls

Recent polling data from the Economist shows Harris with a 48% support rate compared to Trump’s 45%, as of September 2. Additionally, The Independent’s average of national polls as of September 1 places Harris at 47.1%, leading Trump by 3.2 points, who is at 43.8%.

Voter Hesitancy and Gender Gap

The departure of Biden has notably impacted Harris’s standing, with a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll revealing that 31% of Trump supporters are now less confident about their choice, while only 18% of Harris supporters express similar reservations.

Following the Democratic National Convention, there has been a noticeable shift in gender support. Harris’s backing among women increased from 51% pre-DNC to 54% post-DNC, while male support decreased from 49% to 46%. Morning Consult polls also show Harris leading by 4 points among Independent voters, though 20% of these voters remain undecided.