New analysis combining climate models with real-world data offers clearer insight into how quickly the global carbon budget is shrinking (Photo: File)
Understanding just how much the planet will warm for every ton of carbon dioxide released has long bedeviled climate scientists. To be sure, experts agree that reducing emissions is not optional. Still, the absence of definitive projections of warming has often left governments and industries unsure how to plan for the decades ahead.
Now, a new study by Japanese researchers tries to narrow that uncertainty by combining advances in modelling with real-world climate data. It offers a clearer view of how fast the remaining global carbon budget could be used up and what that might mean for global climate policy.
For years, earlier studies generated highly inconsistent estimates of the remaining carbon budget. Without weighing how closely the climate models matched observations, the projected budget hovered around 352 billion tonnes of carbon, with uncertainty so large that some estimates plunged as low as 2 billion tonnes, while others stretched above 700 billion. The carbon budget is the total amount of CO2 that the world can emit and still keep global warming under 2°C.
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The new analysis shifts the estimated average to about 459 billion tonnes and significantly narrows the uncertainty range to 251-666 billion tonnes. While the revision is more precise, it doesn't soften the urgency: with global emissions at about 11 billion tonnes of carbon each year, the remaining budget could disappear in a few decades unless major reductions begin immediately.
To arrive at these revised estimates, the team tested 20 state-of-the-art Earth System Models currently in use for the IPCC. Whereas many previous studies relied heavily on model output, this work considered the performances of these models in matching real-world carbon trends.
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The scientists analyzed how much human-generated CO2 stays in the atmosphere and how much is consumed by oceans, soils, and forests. By comparing this with observation records, they filtered out the models that exaggerated warming or poorly predicted the behavior of natural carbon sinks.
More accurate projections give policymakers a firmer base to establish climate objectives. With a more narrow estimate of how much more carbon the world can emit, countries will be able to design a clearer pathway for reducing emissions, assess the credibility of their net-zero plans, and develop more precise adaptation strategies.
Yet the message remains unchanged: the current rate of emissions is excessively high. The refined analysis reinforces how quickly time is running out to keep the 2°C limit within reach.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as scientific, financial or policy advice.
