With General Asim Munir set to take charge as Pakistan’s new army chief on 29 November, India needs to be more cautious now as the former ISI head would be more hardline. The fact that New Delhi cannot afford to ignore is that Munir was heading Pakistan’s intelligence agency –ISI — at the time of the February 2019 terror attack in Pulwama that claimed lives of 40 CRPF troopers. This horrific attack had triggered a military confrontation between India and Pakistan. Though Munir was keeping a low profile at that time, deliberately trying not to come on record with any statement related to the attack, he was playing a key role in formulation of military-level strategy to respond to any counteraction by New Delhi then.
It’s good that diplomatic and security establishments in India are already alert as they are seeing a “hardliner” in General Munir. Many in the diplomatic establishment here believe, and rightly so, that the new Pakistan army chief Gen Asim Munir could be more rigid and aggressive than the incumbent army chief General Bajwa who would be retiring on 29 November. There may not be any record of his statements in the public domain pertaining to Kashmir or any other issues that tend to trigger confrontation between New Delhi and Islamabad, but he would definitely be pursuing aggressive military strategy and policy against India. Undoubtedly, the Pakistan army has greater influence in Islamabad’s foreign policy, and this will continue with Munir taking charge of the military leadership of the country. The Pakistan Army’s policy to have a total command of the foreign policy matters is not going to change under any circumstances. India, especially the Kashmir issue, is one of the key focus areas of Pakistan’s foreign policy. The outgoing COAS General Bajwa once said that the army will no longer interfere in the political affairs of the country. Who can believe this? Will Asim Munir follow what Bajwa said? He will never allow such a situation to be a new normal in Pakistan where the army continues to call the shots even in political matters. The question being asked now is whether the international border will be peaceful after Munir takes over as Pakistan army chief. Also, will the Pakistan army respect the ceasefire along LOC? Experts say that all this is not possible even under the new army chief. On the contrary, there might be a spurt in infiltration of terrorists from across the border. It is no secret that Pakistan’s ISI has been found supporting terror groups and their camps in PoK and Pakistan, who keep attacking innocent people in Jammu and Kashmir. Now, the head of the same ISI would be at the helm of the army in Pakistan. Does it not underline the need for India to be more cautious and alert? Does it not suggest that there might be more attempts to foment trouble in the Kashmir Valley? Experts believe that Munir cannot afford to be seen to be any positive towards or friendly with India. What is also important to note is that Munir is taking the army’s charge at a time when the Pakistan Army has criticised the recent announcement by the Indian Northern Areas, the Northern Command General, about readiness to occupy Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. This statement has been criticised by the ISPR. The new army chief Munir is opening his new innings amid the bitter note that this issue has set. With this being the case, Gen Munir’s statement on the PoK would be awaited keenly by India. Another important point that India must be looking into is Pakistan army’s and ISI’s future strategy to grow influence in Afghanistan further, as New Delhi is focussing on its constructive and diplomatic activities in Kabul under the new regime of the Taliban. The new boss in Rawalpindi would be playing a key role in deciding how Pakistan goes ahead with its Afghan policy. Needles to mention, Pakistan has been averse to India’s presence in Afghanistan. Importantly, no substantial change in attitude and working style of the Pakistan army under General Munir is expected.
T. BRAJESH