The exquisitely beautiful country of Nepal, which though nestled between tall gigantic countries on all sides, has always maintained its geopolitical significance. But today, this Himalayan country is facing mountains of problems, riddled with multiple challenges of political instability, economic crisis, all amidst a severe health crisis due to the second wave of Covid-19.
Uncertainty looms large as the questions shifted from “Will he/ Won’t he” (Will K.P. Sharma Oli dare to prove his show of strength) to what looks like a game of “Kaun Banega Pradhan Mantri” ( Who will be the Prime Minister?) In a surprising turn of events, both K.P. Sharma Oli and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba have presented their claims a few minutes ahead of 5 pm on Friday, which was the deadline set by President Bhandari for parties to stake claim to the new government.
The leader of the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) Sher Bahadur Deuba claimed to have 149 signatures. They reportedly are from his party, the NC’s 61 members, 48 from the Maoist Centre (MC), as well as 13 from the Upendra Yadav dissident faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), and 27 from the Madhav Kumar Nepal faction of Oli’s own Unified Marxist–Leninist (UML). Deuba was confident the support he has is enough to make him Nepal’s Prime Minister for the fifth time.
On the other hand, going back on his refusal to take the floor test again to prove his numbers, Prime Minister KP Oli reached the President’s Residence on Friday afternoon, just a few minutes before Deuba and his supporters, with a claim to have the support of 153 members from his UML party and the JSP. However, considering both the UML and JSP have dissident factions who are in support of Deuba, this claim is yet to be verified.
This present political instability stems from an intra-party conflict within the ruling party itself. K.P. Sharma Oli and senior leaders like Madhav Kumar Nepal don’t see eye to eye on many issues. In general, most of Nepal’s political parties, especially the communist parties, seek to win votes by stoking an ultra-nationalistic fervour and an anti-India sentiment amongst the Nepalis. Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli has meticulously built a perception of a strong ultra-nationalist and has tried to portray himself as a saviour of Nepalis who will safeguard their sovereignty and national interests. The current political upheaval comes as an unwanted extra for the Nepalese believed to be the doing of an egoist, authoritarian and assertive Prime Minister Oli.
The influence of the Northern and Southern neighbours on Kathmandu’s politics is quite evident. In recent times it has been observed that while the Chinese hand is clearly visible in Nepal’s political crisis, India always appeared to watch from the sidelines.
China’s pandemic diplomacy was quick to sense an opportunity. While India is busy battling a massive second wave of Covid cases, China is building up ties with South Asian countries through strategic cooperation.
China has been conducting multilateral virtual conferences with South Asian countries including Nepal under its pandemic diplomacy initiative in the last few months.
China has provided grants and assistance to counter Covid-19 challenges in Nepal. Late last month, China had promised Nepal medical equipment and supplies equivalent to 5 million yuan ($780,000) and has also promised to supply 20,000 oxygen cylinders.
As the wise rightly say, there are no free lunches in this world. While China liberally offers aid to unsuspecting nations, these countries are then arm twisted in other ways. The Chinese are accused of micromanaging local affairs in Nepal via the Chinese embassy. The Chinese envoy’s series of meetings with the ruling party leaders and other major political leaders are testimony to this fact. China began to increase its clout concerning all political parties right after the abolition of the monarchy.
Besides increasing its political footprints in Nepal, China is escalating its financial profile as well by investing billions of dollars under its multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative including the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network.
But the real blow by the global bully was in the form of the latest China-Nepal border row which intensified when it was discovered that border pillars had gone missing in Nepal’s Daulkha district, in what is most likely a case of China’s strategy of salami slicing.
To make matters worse, Prime Minister Oli has isolated Nepal from the friendly United States. The US is irked with him after he showed no interest in joining the Millennium Challenge Cooperation (MCC), which was aimed at providing affordable and green transportation, electricity, regional security, peace and development to partners. This is allegedly at the behest of China that calls it a military platform.
Closer to home, since the last two years, Prime Minister Oli has been raising territorial disputes like Kalapani, religious issues like Ayodhya, badmouthing India’s goodwill, engaging in verbal spats on petty issues which led to a huge trust deficit, although India nonetheless provided Nepal with vaccines and timely supplies of medical equipment, and oxygen on humanitarian grounds.
India is keen to have good ties with Nepal, which is quite visible, with Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Nepal, apart from R&AW chief Samant Goyal, Army Chief Naravane, and Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla’s recent visit to improve Indo-Nepal relations. India and Nepal have deep cultural bonds, and it will be beneficial for both countries to have successful bilateral relations. Ultimately, Nepal needs India much more than it needs China.
On the health front, which is another matter of great concern presently for Nepal, the latest scenario is that a deadly second wave of the pandemic is sweeping across Nepal. It is estimated that Nepal’s overall Covid caseload and death toll measure at an alarming 455,020 and 5,001.
This should be a wake-up call for the political powers to maintain balanced bilateral relations with neighbours India, China, and beyond, and handle domestic politics more sensitively. Nepal needs a strong and stable government that can strategically handle all these huge domestic challenges with the help of strong bilateral relations with both India and China. This is the need of the hour.
Rajalakshmi Kameshwar Joshi is a Political Analyst & Mahesh Joshi is an Indo-Nepal Relations Expert.