The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan and the concomitant chaos and apprehensions have disturbed the region and beyond. The media coverage of the region offers very ominous indications of a collapse. The US exit from Kabul has pushed the nation to uncertainty. This situation of a breakdown was well-anticipated before the USA even decided to quit Afghanistan. With no roadmap for peace, the withdrawal of American troops and giving Taliban the necessary latitude to take over Afghanistan is a very bizarre move; and it will have consequences beyond repair.
The return of Taliban to power may also repeat its pre-2001 aggression which includes the strict observance of the Sharia law. They may revive the custom offorcing burqa upon women as the standard and irrefutable dressing code and the prohibition of education to girls and may also resort to banning cinema, art, music etc. Moreover, Taliban’s religious bigotry is quite well-known and outrageous too as it destroyed the 6th century monumental Bamiyan Buddha statues in Central Afghanistan. This and a host of other distasteful activities of the Taliban have given it enough bad names beyond repair. To undertake this level of insurgency requires a great deal of funding. The Taliban depend on the poppy economy, drug business, taxation on poppy cultivators, traders, smugglers, the owners of drug laboratories, narcotics industries, extortion, illegal mining of its rich minerals and charitable donations. The foreign funding is alleged to have flowed from Pakistan, Iran and Russia as well as private citizens from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates. But unfortunately, the incorrigible Taliban are surprisingly taken to be the agent of governance. The revenue collected from various sources is invested in promoting religious radicalism and terrorism. After positioning itself at the helm of power, Taliban may reveal its true nature and may offer sanctuary to the terroristorganizations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al-Qaeda, Jaish-e-Mohammed etc. to operate safely and wreak havoc for the cause of Islamic radicalism. The USA removal of troops assuming Taliban will behave in a civilized manner and work towards negotiating a peace-deal with Afghan regime is a myopic diplomacy.This assumption explains poverty of reflection and memory. The US mismanagement in Afghanistan gives a dent to its image and causing insecurities and disappointment to its alliance partners. In the UN Security Council meeting held on 17 August 2021, the UK and France expressed their concerns over the US mismanagement.
PAKISTAN’S RISK
Pakistan’s backing of Taliban takeover is a great risk-taking behaviour in Islamabad’s foreign policy. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a Pashtun jihadi Islamist group, is known for its extremism in Pakistan and could be a major headache for the later. TTP is ideologically affiliated to Taliban; and its professed objective is to destabilize the Pakistani establishment by resorting to violence. It roll backs to the ungoverned areas of Afghanistan-Pakistanborder at the face of possible crackdown from the Pak- Armed Forces. With Taliban apparently on the verge of forming a government in Kabul may increase the morale of the TTP to continue terrorism in Pakistan. This would give the real nightmare to Islamabad which nurtures the hope of cornering India with the help of Taliban and China. The reorganization of the TTP in 2020 under the leadership of Noor Wali Mehsud seems to have become more determined. Islamabad’s indulgence in daydreaming over the rise of Taliban in Afghanistan may be a short-lived one. Pakistan’s arithmetic over Taliban may go sour, if TTP gets empowered and resumes its programme of disruption. Contrary to the popular perception around the possible empowerment of Pakistan post the Taliban formation of govt in Kabul, there is much that remains unsaid. It is important to see how Pakistan handles its enemy within and the Taliban at the border. It would not be that easy for Islamabad to steady its sail with all the roughness around.
CHINA’S INSECURITY
China’s gift of legitimacy to the Taliban comes from none other than its Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who recently met Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Taliban Co-founder and Deputy leader at Tianjin. Yi acknowledged the Taliban as an important political and military force in Afghanistan and its role in restoring the ‘peace, reconciliation and reconstruction process’. Beijing’s calculated moves are premised to exploit the vast untapped natural resources of Afghanistan through economic partnership, and then reinforce its grip over Central Asia and West Asia through the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) linking the Wakhan corridor . However, Chinese support to Taliban could prove disastrous for Beijing as well . Wang Yi has also apprehended the danger that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) poses to China’s national security and territorial integrity. It explains China’s fear for ETIM and its threat to intensify the Uyghur issue. Beijing is desperate to delink the Taliban from ETIM. It also offered Taliban leadership the promise of massive investment in December 2000 with a condition not to fester Uighur tension. The National Directorate of Security (NDS) of Kabul also disclosed in 2020 the possible connivance between China and the Haqqani network to eliminate Uyghurs operating in Badakhshan (Afghanistan) which shares a 91 km border with China. Hence, given the complexity of Uyghur issue, ETI and an Islamic Emirate at the immediate border, there could be emergent threats to the security considerations of Beijing in the days ahead.
IRAN’S ANXIETY
Iran, crippled by American sanctions and its anti-American propensity, sides with Taliban and may ensure the complete roll-back of the USA from the region. Its bonhomie with Beijing is quite well-known as the latter has become the partner to make Iran rise from the debilitating effects of the American embargo. The US leaving its doorstep is definitely a feel-good factor for Iran; and it may expect Washington to move away from neighbouring Iraq to make the path clear for its rise in the region as a decisive force. But, the Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict is a major hurdle that stands on the path of Iran’s aspirations. The Hazara community in Afghanistan, which practices Shia Islam constitutes 9% of the entire population, has experienced severe persecution under Taliban from 1996 to 2001, and their story of suffering is extremely grim.Taliban continued the custom of targeting the Hazara minority and deprived them of the basic human rights. With the ongoing resurgence of the Taliban, the Hazaras feel insecure. The conflicts between the rival sectarian groups are likely to happen contrary to Taliban’s advertised view of going sober on its minorities. Such conflicts will have direct bearing upon Iran and its regional geo-political ambition. Tehran’s desperation is well understood as it intends to go free from the shadow of the US. But, its benefit from Taliban is counter-intuitive.
RUSSIA’S TROUBLE
The statement of Dmitry Zhirnov, Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan that “Kabul is safer under Taliban rule than it was under previous authorities” may be a ploy to extend its strategic reach, but the sustained engagement may boomerang Moscow in long term perspective. It is pertinent to mention here that Chechen insurgency evolving into the Caucasus Emirate in 2007 has been a problem for Russia. Doku Umarov’s promotion of Caucasus Emirate premised on Sharia law encompassing various republics in the North Caucasus and different ethnic-Islamic groups in the region (Chechens, Ingushetians, Dagestanis, Kabardians, Balkarians, Karachayans) and its guerrilla operation against Russia has made Kremlin insecure. The rise of the Taliban and the Sunni connection may trigger the weakened Chechnya and others to fight for the Caucasus Empire. The pan-Islamic confederacy, if formed, may pose a greater challenge to the Russian aspirations in Central Asia as well. In addition to this, if the Caucasus Emirate stitches alliance with the Taliban, it would invite greater trouble for Russia. The 1980s religious Jihad against the Soviet Union may revive as Russia under Vladimir Putin has gone very hard on the Islamist elements like Chechens. Therefore, Moscow pre-empts these probabilities and works towards bettering its relationship with the Taliban. Moreover, Taliban along with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and other Islamist groups may spread radicalism in the region leading to possible spillover effect among the Sunni-majority countries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan in the Central Asia. Such developments, if they take place, may significantly pose a challenge to Russia.
INDIA’S CONCERN
Amid such developments in the region, it is also equally important to observe the threat perceptions that India may preempt being one of the significant investors in the developmental projects in Afghanistan and its role towards conflict minimization. There is no doubt that India will feel the brunt of these developments in Afghanistan. Pakistan is assumed to wage a proxy war against India using Taliban; and China may ensure its prolongation to curtail the rise of India. New Delhi needs to maintain a strategic silence and adopt the “wait and watch” policy and the soft-power modalities over the escalations in Kabul. It is also important to observe how much control Pakistan will have upon the Taliban after the latter secures power in Kabul. India seems to be quiet like other major western powers and measures its own step with mathematical precision, which is very much desirable looking into the ongoing tensions in Afghanistan and its possible spill-over. Besides, the investments worth around $3 billion covering 400 plus projects in 34 provinces cannot be given away to the Taliban for destruction. However, nothing can be said with clarity what direction Kabul would be led by the Taliban, though it appears to be more media-savvy to attract global legitimacy. The Taliban’s craft in advertising a narrative of reconciliation and inclusion is more of a gesture than reality.
Dr Jajati K. Pattnaik is an Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Chandan K. Panda is an Assistant Professor at the Department of English, Rajiv Gandhi University, Itanagar, Arunachal Pradesh.