With the Election Commission announcing the dates for the 2024 Parliamentary showdown, decks have cleared for one of the most awaited contests in the recent past. On one hand is a loosely knit alliance of multiple opposition parties trying to dislodge the BJP from the seat of power, and on the other hand is Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is spearheading a presidential style campaign to ensure that he gets a third term in office.
While it is for the people of India to choose their next government and the prime minister, as things stand today, Modi seems to have a clear advantage, and is in the pole position. The elections are being fought in the backdrop of the inauguration of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya, the abrogation of article 370, the formulation of the rules for the Citizenship Amendment Act, the controversy over electoral bonds and several other contentious subjects.
The bugle has been sounded and the parties have commenced the usual trading of charges. However, what needs to be seen is whether the poll notification shall lead to heightened political activity and unexpected developments, that can change, or at least impact the course of the events. Modi being the most prominent politician of our times, appears to be far ahead in every manner. He has adopted an outreach style similar to that we have all been witnessing in successive US presidential campaigns.
In every manner of the word, he is technologically more savvy than all his opponents and relies heavily on social media networks and various platforms that have made him a household name. He has embarked on an exercise, in which he alone is central, and therefore it is difficult to decipher who is principal opponent is going to be. The BJP is interested in making it look like a Modi versus Rahul Gandhi fight where the Prime Minister certainly looks far more formidable. On its part, the Congress has repeatedly made it clear that Rahul Gandhi was not an aspirant for the Prime Ministership, but the way his two yatras have been highlighted, it is difficult for anyone to believe that anyone other than him, could be the Congress choice.
The Modi Vs Rahul projection also provides the BJP with a distinct advantage in the 200 seats where it is pitted one on one against the grand old party. In fact, the Congress is both the strong and weak link in the Opposition alliance.
In the past two elections, the BJP has been victorious in 90 percent of seats where there was a straight fight. Thus, the onus of stopping the BJP march forward lies solely with the Congress. If the Congress is able to get more than 100 seats which seem unlikely at this stage, the BJP, will struggle to reach a simple majority. The point is that the way the Congress has been going about its approach towards elections, it makes out a strong case against itself. Many analysts could interpret this complacency and casual approach as the wish of the Congress to gift the government one more time to the BJP. On the BJP’s part, the Saffron Brigade has worked out its caste equations, and is getting into alliances with some of the most unexpected partners.
The clarion call by the Prime Minister and the party that “Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar’’ is an expression of the ruling dispensation’s determination to win for the third time. Everyone knows that the 400 plus objective is extremely difficult to achieve but it sets a target figure which the opponents have not been able to counter so far. Electioneering is not a Maths paper where one can secure cent percent marks. How can anyone win 400 plus in the 436 seats which are contested by that party is a question which would need to be answered by election experts. The 400 paar is a slogan that has caught the fancy of the people, and has thus contributed in demoralizing a fractured opposition.
The situation is unique and at best can be compared somewhat with what was there in 1977 when the Opposition was in a disarray and the ruling party was in its most aggressive mode. However, Modi and his associates who have planned their approach to the election, are very cautious and careful and thus shall not repeat the mistakes by any political party in the past. The BJP’s desperation to win is also evident from the fact that despite the distinct advantage, it is wooing even small groups and outfits to augment its projected tally.
The Congress is facing implosion and is taking its time in announcing its candidates. The fear so far was that early announcement would make the declared candidates susceptible to poaching by the BJP. That fear may even persist now since there is little guarantee that some of the nominees may not cross over. There are always unknown factors that influence the outcome. This has happened in the past and can happen even now. In 2019, the tragic Pulwama attack had taken the centre-stage and every other issue after that was put on the backburner. The government’s response was prompt and reiterated the faith of the people in its ability to deal with such dastardly acts. This time though, the scenario is different. The BJP is in a comfortable position, perception wise at least, and the Opposition has a lot of catching up to do.
How this fight will unfold over the next few weeks would actually determine who ends up on the winning side.