Indian media and Realpolitik are like two banks of a canal that never meet. The US having stationed its military might in Afghanistan for two decades chose to leave for her own geopolitical strategies; never addressed the Taliban as terrorists. The US still deals with the Taliban. No world power and/or Nations who matter in world affairs addressed the Taliban as terrorists, and this includes India. It is one thing to internationally denounce an ideological framework of people and quite another to label them as terrorists. While the Taliban have been denounced for their attitude toward women and their violation of human rights, yet not labelled as terrorists, but the Indian media freely uses that invective against the Taliban. For all the noises made by the media the world over on various issues since its inception, it has never influenced the Realpolitik dynamics and shall never be able to do so.
The media is for public consumption; maybe for the satiating intellectual appetite of some and creating job opportunities for graduates in journalism and it is a disjointed set with no intersection with the superset of world politics.
HISTORICAL FACTS
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is all too well known for funding the spread of Wahabism in countries with a substantial Muslim population; also known for funding extremist organisations; her record of human rights and treatment to women is too well known to be detailed in this piece. Yet she was and remains to be the biggest and trusted ally of the US! Why? The US was/continues to be driven by her geopolitical and economic interests and has always shown the willingness to look the other way when confronted with issues like human rights and/or religious extremism. The US never said a word against the massacre of Chinese students in Tiananmen Square. The US bombarded Iraq to Stone Age on a totally false premise because the US did not approve of Saddam Hussein’s political ambitions dictated by Baathism; not to forget that the US and Iraq were allies and that the US had supported Iraq in her war against Iran. The list is too long to be continued with.
The OIC—a conglomeration of 56 Muslim countries—have not said a word against China for her treatment of Uyghur Muslims; not a word when the then President of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, attacked the Lal Masjid in Pakistan for his own reasons; imagine a mosque being invaded and no admonishment coming from the KSA!
NATIONAL INTERESTS ARE SUPREME
From the historical facts, one can see that all along in their relationship/response with/to the other nations, the Nations have been guided by their respective interests in the region and not by the ethics and morals as embedded in the sociopolitical and socioeconomic set up of the countries of interest.
Between the two nations, the relationship is transactional and there is no assured permanence in there. How much of a benefit each nation can derive from a given relationship shall decide its content and tenure. The relationship is also governed by ‘how equal’ or ‘how unequal’ the two nations are; one example being the US and Pakistan. Pakistan was ever ready to be used by the US for the latter’s geopolitical interests, only if the US agreed to shower dollars on Pakistan. The US thoroughly used Pakistan for her ends and Pakistan used a substantial part of the dollars on promoting insurgency in Kashmir as per Operation Topac but in today’s scenario the US President has not even made a courtesy call to the PM of Pakistan and Imran Khan is dying to receive one.
Similarly, the Taliban have declared the Uyghur Muslim issue as internal to China. Taliban have repeatedly told India that her assets are under no threat and that India is welcome to complete all the projects undertaken by her in Afghanistan. To an extent, India has responded favourably by re-sending some of her embassy staff back to Kabul. All this from the Taliban end because they realise the importance of doing business with the countries in their vicinity to boost their economy by raising the GDP and per capita income and expenditure of their people.
In recent times, the KSA has displayed her propensity to move towards a more free and open society wherein the women would have a role to play; the Crown Prince has also talked about reinterpreting Sharia and judiciously choosing Hadith in a way that would be in line with the international law so that the economic paradigm of the KSA is enlarged and the economy gets integrated with the world economy. All this is being done to become an economic power to have a say in world affairs and it would also increase per capita income and expenditure of her people.
NO SERMONISING ON MORALS AND ETHICS
No nation-state can claim to have a perfect human rights record and an ideal environment for the womenfolk. The very definition of human rights is too vague and therefore subject to misuse like “activists” vouching for the human rights of those who explode bombs and annihilate lives.
The womenfolk have suffered oppression and abuse for ages that are still glaringly on in some parts of the world. In India also, the womenfolk do face discrimination and harassment at home and office including female child foeticide; the bride burning cases for want of dowry used to be too conspicuous by their occurrences and the cases of kidnapping, molestation and gang rape no matter what age. Implementation of laws specific to such cases may have helped in bringing down the numbers and perhaps frequency of occurrence of such cases, but it has taken a huge effort on the part of successive governments to bring forth such laws for their implementation in the public domain. Yet to claim that Indian society is free of such crimes would be a huge travesty of truth.
To ill-treat women has not been specific to any community/race/religion, it has been truly “secular” and only its manifestations have been different; like in the UK until 1885, women did not have voting rights! That girls in India have been going to schools and pursuing vocational education and womenfolk are found serving in all available offices, is a phenomenon that has slowly evolved over the last 70 years breaking the social rule that girls and women are meant to do only household work and raise a family in a civilised way for the children to grow into cultured beings.
The Taliban from their press statements have been reassuring the world that they want to have a good relationship with all and from their public statements, it can be inferred that they are trying to move ahead with regard to the role of women in society. No transformation comes overnight; the Taliban suffer from a huge trust deficit not only among the comity of nations but also among the Afghans. The world needs to take a call: trust or not to trust the Taliban for their pronouncements and also weigh consequences under both situations.
INDIA CAN LEAD BY EXAMPLE
In the worst of times, those who set precedence(s) create history and the rest follow them. Time is opportune for India to create history and history can’t be created without a risk element—big or small.
India after weighing the costs involved in risking a transactional relationship with the Taliban’s Afghanistan should go ahead with this enterprise (even at the risk of higher costs) if she aspires to be the world leader. The Taliban have been assuring India about everything to allay her apprehensions; without waiting for some other Nation to take a lead India must lead.
The theories pertaining to China-Pak-Taliban axis to liberate Kashmir from India or to dismember her are only speculative; even if realistic, India’s military strength should be able to respond appropriately to any kind of aggression; the way India stood up to China on the LAC and succeeded in mobilising world opinion against the expansionist designs of China which also helped in strengthening the Quad in the Indo Pacific.
Further, if India engages herself with the Taliban’s Afghanistan in carrying out development projects under soft loans/grant schemes the Taliban would be politically incorrect to joing hands with Pakistan and China to harass India on her western front because such aggression would halt Indian investments in Afghanistan and Taliban would not be sure of the net outcome of their aggression on Indian borders.
Indian investments are going to be the cementing factor for the relationship between the Taliban’s Afghanistan and India and are likely to act as a deterrent against the nefarious designs of China and Pakistan. India has an added advantage in Afghanistan in that the Taliban know that Afghans love India and Indians for the effort put in by India in the last 20 years.
There is no love lost between the Taliban and Pakistan as can be inferred from the press statements of the Taliban spokesperson and more significant is the stand taken by the Taliban on TTP in regard to the latter’s propensity to attack within Pakistan; the Taliban have declared it as an internal matter of Pakistan; it implies that commonality of religion is not going to decide the international relations for the Taliban.
INVESTMENTS IN AFGHANISTAN A HUGE DETERRENT FOR CHINESE DESIGNS IN SOUTH ASIA
Like in the Maldives, so in Afghanistan, India can design an economic and development package for the Taliban’s Afghanistan that shall be more lucrative and beneficial than the one that China may offer. The difference between the two being political intent, if Taliban are made to appreciate the colonial mindset of China and purely economical development intentions of India (by citing various examples) then it is probable that the Taliban may lean towards India and weaken the China-Pak nexus as Pakistan in such an eventuality would be only a helpless spectator. Undoubtedly, it is in the geopolitical interests of India to checkmate China.
NOT TO MISS THE BUS
Hopefully, India will not miss the bus and shall make her presence felt in South Asia as an economic power to reckon with.
Trusting the Taliban for their words would be a huge impetus for the relationship between the two countries and remember: Pashtuns are not an ungrateful people and Afghans love India.
Boarding the bus may most likely turn out to be a win-win situation for both parties.
Mir Junaid is the President of Jammu Kashmir Workers Party. He is a political activist and a writer. He writes for many international papers and magazines. Mir is an alumnus of the Law School of Kashmir University. He can be reached on Twitter @MirJunaidJKWP