By declaring that he shall quit his position as the Delhi Chief Minister, the Aam Aadmi Party boss, Arvind Kejriwal has precipitated the political churning in the national capital. His move, has evidently put both the BJP and the Congress on the defensive, and his outfit has apparently emerged as the party most likely to enjoy the advantage in the Assembly polls that can be held within the next six months, unless, the Centre has other plans.
Incidentally, the Sunday Guardian had anticipated his resignation both this time as well as when he had put in his papers in 2014, while he had the support of the Congress. The political blunder by the Congress at that time had cost it immensely and till today, the party has not been able to win a single seat in the last two polls, where Kejriwal led the AAP to historic wins. Although, it is early to predict the outcome of the next round of Assembly elections, it is more or less settled that the AAP, could win the third consecutive time, with the BJP and Congress competing with each other for the second and third position.
The Congress has improved its position and the BJP, even after winning the Parliamentary polls a few months ago, does not seem as confident as it should be. The BJP lacks a face that can be projected to oppose Kejriwal and the Congress may have no option but to bring back Ajay Maken, as its CM nominee, given that it would be wanting the support amongst Dalit and Muslims to be extended to the Punjabis as well.
Kejriwal’s announcement on Sunday, is a well calibrated move and the reason why he has sought 48 hours is that he wishes to gauge the reactions in political circles. There is also suspense over who would succeed him as the CM, with most analysts believing that it would be Atishi Singh, a minister in his government and someone who is close both to him and his closest associate, Manish Sisodia. Atishi is also handling most of the ministries and is virtually functioning as the de-facto CM.
However, Arvind is a very politically astute leader and would weigh in many other factors before choosing his successor. The choice would be his since all the MLAs, would now look up to him, to get them re-elected. Therefore, it is possible that he could opt to hand over the baton to his wife, Sunita, who has been holding fort for the past six months, while he was in jail. Sunita’s appointment would also help him to retain his dream house on Flag Stag Road in Civil Lines, which otherwise would have to be vacated, if someone else is made the CM.
The Lt.Governor, with whom Kejriwal enjoys a bitter relationship, would take no time in ordering eviction. If Sunita Kejriwal is appointed the CM, she does not have to be immediately elected to the Assembly and can remain in that position for six months and by that time, the Assembly polls, if the Election Commission decides, would have been held. The new Assembly can thereafter choose the next CM and if AAP comes to power, then obviously, Kejriwal would be the automatic choice.
The AAP proposes to use the polls as a referendum on the honesty of the CM, which is strange since, only the Courts have the right to convict or absolve anyone. However, Kejriwal has strong political instincts and if the people’s verdict is in his favour, he would claim that he had been declared innocent by the electorate thus mounting pressure on the Centre.
Kejriwal would also wish to make the elections, a plank for fighting for full Statehood for Delhi, in an effort to end the multiplicity of authority as well as to ensure that the Centre, does not use the current constitutional provisions, to curtail his powers, and is forced to review its position and bring about changes, wherever they were required. The AAP is contesting the Assembly elections in Haryana as well and many may believe that after Kejriwal’s release, the party’s nominees may benefit due to a “sympathy factor’’. This is most unlikely since in the adjoining State, which also happens to be the region from where Kejriwal hails, the AAP’s presence and chances, are almost negligible and its vote cutting capacity is also very diminished. But no chances should ever be taken and therefore, the Congress in particular should remarshal its strategy to contain any possible damage.
There are many in the Congress and other parties, who are convinced that the AAP is the ‘’B” team of the RSS and it has always flourished at the expense of the grand old party. What Kejriwal has to figure out is that like him, even the top two leaders of the BJP, are politically very wily and would not allow him to steal the thunder. Therefore, he should expect the BJP to also throw up a few surprises, the imposition of Presidents’ rule in the capital to begin with. The Centre could also supersede the Assembly and not hold elections on the plea that an alternative to the present arrangement has to be found.
A Commission could thus be constituted on the lines of the Sarkaria Commission, which the VP Singh government had in 1989 end formed, to look into the question of ending multiplicity of authority in Delhi while superseding both the Metropolitan Council and the Municipal Corporation. The BJP under Modi is a difficult opponent to have and therefore it is never easy to predict the moves. At present, the focus is on Kejriwal.