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KARNATAKA COULD WITNESS LEADERSHIP CHANGES IN BJP, CONGRESS

By stating that no job was permanent, Karnataka Chief Minister, Basavaraj Bommai has fueled speculation regarding his imminent exit from his post. Speaking at a public event in his hometown of Shiggaon in Haveri district last Sunday, Bommai became emotional and observed that in life nothing was permanent, not even posts and positions. Bommai, who […]

Union Home Minister Amit Shah
Union Home Minister Amit Shah

By stating that no job was permanent, Karnataka Chief Minister, Basavaraj Bommai has fueled speculation regarding his imminent exit from his post. Speaking at a public event in his hometown of Shiggaon in Haveri district last Sunday, Bommai became emotional and observed that in life nothing was permanent, not even posts and positions. Bommai, who was appointed the 23rd CM of the State after the resignation of BS Yeddyurappa, is likely to be shortly replaced. However, on Saturday, State BJP Chief Nalin Kumar Kateel described reports of a change as “a figment of imagination”’ and asserted that he would remain as the CM till the next Assembly polls in 2023. This is being viewed as merely a damage control exercise after Bommai himself triggered the speculation. The Central BJP leadership is expected to take a decision on his successor after evaluating Bommai’s performance. In this short period, the party has lost to the Congress in the CM’s home turf in an Assembly by-election. To add to the worries, even in the Legislative Council polls held recently, where the BJP expected to win at least 18 seats, it ended up being victorious in only 11, the same number which archrival Congress won. There have been numerous complaints against the Chief Minister, who is being accused of being too laid back and pre-occupied with his own personal life.

There are also conjectures in political circles that Bommai’s foreign visit has been cancelled; the WTO at Davos was postponed and his desire to visit the United States, has been put in abeyance given the rising cases of the latest Covid variant. The principal grouse against the CM is that he has not been able to keep the dominant Lingayat community with the party. The Lingayats, a powerful force in the State, are the BJP’s main source of strength. The entire community has been upset ever since Yeddyurappa was shown the door in an unceremonious manner. In this context, it is expected that a senior influential Lingayat leader such as Jagdish Shettar, who is also a former Chief Minister, could be picked to replace Bommai, who incidentally happens to be a Lingayat as well. Bommai and his illustrious father S.R.Bommai, are the second instance of both father and son being the CMs of the same Southern state. The first example of this was when H.D.Kumaraswamy, emulated his father H.D.Deva Gowda’s feat of being the CM. The BJP is not the only party which is wooing the Lingayats. Even in the Congress, there is some thinking going on whether to have a prominent face from the community as the possible president of the State unit in place of D.K.Shiva Kumar. Shiva Kumar, is a Vokkaliga by caste and was made the KPCC president by Ahmed Patel, Sonia Gandhi’s political adviser, to repay him for helping him win the Rajya Sabha polls from Gujarat. Shiva Kumar had hosted the Congress MLAs from that state at his resort for which Patel remained grateful to him till the end.

To begin with Rahul Gandhi was not keen to have him as the president, even though he has been a party-loyalist for a long time. But Patel convinced Sonia and the change happened. In the fresh round of thinking, the Congress is weighing its electoral prospects for the 2023 Assembly polls, where it is more or less clear that the Vokkaligas would give preference to their senior most leader, Deva Gowda and nobody else. Although Shiva Kumar has a running feud with former CM, Siddaramaiah, who is an OBC and an acknowledged mass leader, the two have seldom quarrelled in public. Shiva Kumar’s supporters have often accused Siddaramaiah of siding with those who were in Janata Dal ( Secular) with him instead of utilizing the services of senior Congressmen.

With the passage of time, the shrewd and perceptive PCC Chief has won over the loyalty of many who are close to Rahul Gandhi. The dilemma before the Congress is, whether Shiva Kumar can garner the support of his own community, which is largely with the Deva Gowda family, or should it try to breach the BJP’s grip over the Lingayats. Former State Home Minister, M.B.Patil, who is highly regarded in the Lingayat community, and has wide acceptance amongst all factions, could be a possible successor to Shiva Kumar, if the High Command decides to take a call. There may be several dimensions that may be attached to the decision if that has to happen. For now, the question remains, who shall succeed Bommai as the next CM if he is to be changed.

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