Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, successfully navigated a second parliamentary confidence motion in under a week, as opposition parties pledged to support his minority Liberal government for the time being. In a recent vote, legislators in the House of Commons defeated a motion by the official opposition Conservative Party, with a tally of 207-121, aimed at ousting Trudeau, who has been in power for nearly nine years.
Just last Thursday, Trudeau effortlessly dismissed an initial Conservative motion to bring down his government. The Conservatives, currently leading in the polls ahead of an election scheduled by the end of October 2025, argue that Canadians cannot bear a planned increase in the federal carbon tax and accuse Trudeau of overseeing rising prices and increasing crime rates.
To trigger a general election, the Conservatives need unanimous support from all opposition members. However, the separatist Bloc Québécois, advocating for Quebec’s independence, has aligned with Trudeau for now, stating it would support his government until at least the end of this month in exchange for enhancements to seniors’ pensions.
Even if the Bloc withdraws its support, Trudeau could still rely on the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) for assistance. A recent Nanos poll, released on September 27, revealed the Conservatives enjoying 42% public support, significantly ahead of the NDP at 22% and the Liberals at 21%. This polling scenario suggests a potential Conservative landslide if replicated in an election, which might incentivize the NDP to maintain support for Trudeau, hoping to bolster its own standing.