If current trends continue, Japan may have only one child in the entire country by the year 2720. This alarming prediction comes as Japan’s birth rate continues to decline. In 2024, the number of babies born in Japan fell for the ninth consecutive year, hitting a record low.
Japan’s Declining Birth Rate
Japan’s health ministry released data showing that only 720,988 babies were born in 2024, including those born to foreign nationals. This marks a 5% drop from 758,631 births in 2023. By comparison, India recorded 29,466,366 births in 2024, according to Countrymeters.
Moreover, the birth rate decline is further compounded by Japan’s high death rate. In 2024, the country recorded 1,618,684 deaths, a 1.8% increase from the previous year. As a result, for every baby born, two people passed away. Consequently, Japan’s population shrank by nearly 900,000 people, setting another record.
Government’s Response
In response to this crisis, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba acknowledged that the birth rate has not stabilized. “We need to be aware the trend of falling births has not been arrested. But the number of marriages posted an increase. Given close ties between the number of marriages and the number of births, we should focus on this aspect as well,” he said.
Japan’s population peaked at 128.1 million in 2008. However, since then, the country has lost nearly five million people, and the downward trend continues. Projections from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimate that Japan’s population will drop below 100 million by 2048 and reach 87 million by 2060. This means over 40 million people—one-third of the population—will disappear within half a century.
Meanwhile, Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor at Tohoku University’s Research Centre for Aged Economy and Society, warns that Japan could have only one child under 14 by 2720 if the birth decline continues. He cautioned, “If the decline in the number of births is not stopped, the ‘clock’ will be turned back.” He added, “Japan could become the first country to become extinct due to a low birth rate.”
Reasons Behind the Low Birth Rate
Experts cite several reasons for Japan’s low birth rate. First, economist Takumi Fujinami from the Japan Research Institute points to a decline in marriages. Unlike other countries, most Japanese babies are born within marriage. In 2023, the number of marriages increased to 499,999, a 2.2% rise from the previous year. However, this does not offset the sharp 12.7% drop recorded in 2020.
Furthermore, economic challenges and traditional gender roles also discourage marriage. Many Japanese women prefer financially stable partners, making men without steady jobs less desirable. Ekaterina Hertog, an associate professor at the Oxford Internet Institute, explains that “traditional male breadwinner expectations” pressure lower-paid men to delay or forgo marriage altogether.
Additionally, many women work irregular jobs with unstable hours and low pay, making it difficult to start families. The lack of well-paying jobs also discourages marriage and childbirth.
Another major factor is Japan’s work culture. The country is known for extreme work hours, and the term “karoshi”—meaning death by overwork—highlights the severity of this issue. Due to this demanding work environment, many couples struggle to find time to start families, further contributing to the birth rate decline.
Government Efforts to Address the Crisis
To combat the crisis, Japan has introduced several policies to encourage marriage and childbirth. In 2023, then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called the situation a “now or never” crisis. “Japan is standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society,” he warned.
As part of its efforts, the government has launched various initiatives, including a state-run dating app to encourage marriages. This move caught the attention of tech billionaire Elon Musk, who remarked, “I’m glad the government of Japan recognises the importance of this matter. If radical action isn’t taken, Japan (and many other countries) will disappear!”
In addition, other measures include expanding childcare facilities and offering housing subsidies. Moreover, Prime Minister Ishiba has introduced a ¥3.6 trillion childcare policy package.
The Future of Japan’s Population
Despite these efforts, Japan’s birth rate continues to fall. Therefore, the country now faces a critical moment: it must reverse the decline or risk an irreversible population crisis.
