The Jan Ki Baat survey on Punjab Elections 2022 gives a clear edge to Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party with 74% respondents to the survey saying that AAP is the biggest challenger to Congress in battleground state. The survey conducted between 27 August and 3 September by Jan Ki Baat field researchers in Punjab throws up interesting political findings. Here are the findings of the survey and analysis by Jan Ki Baat Founder & Psephologist Pradeep Bhandari.
Q) Who will win if elections were to be held today in Punjab?
A) CONGRESS – 23%
B) AAP – 37 %
C) SAD – 17 %
D) BJP -6 %
E) UNDECIDED – 17%
The bitter, ugly and very very public war between Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh & newly appointed Punjab Congress chief Navjot Singh Sidhu is damaging the Congress Party’s prospects in poll-bound Punjab. The inability of the Congress Party to get its house in order ahead of elections is helping AAP gain ground significantly. AAP on its part is making the most out of this
anti-Congress sentiment which has been triggered due to the infighting in
Q) Will Captain vs Sidhu fight damage the Congress party’s chances in Punjab?
A) YES – 72%
B) NO – 28%
Bhandari’s analysis: 72% of respondents to the survey are of the opinion that the Captain vs Sidhu fight is denting Congress’ prospects in the state. The inability of the Gandhis to iron out differences between its two biggest leaders in Punjab has divided the Congress Party down to the middle. While Captain Amarinder Singh has both sympathy and support from the Congress cadre, the public spectacle seems to be pushing a significant chunk of Congress voters AAP.
Q) Which issue is most crucial for voters of Punjab?
A) ELECTRICITY 22%
B) PRICE RISE 32%
C) FARMER PROTEST 25%
D) UNEMPLOYMENT 21%
Like we witnessed in Uttar Pradesh, household inflation and price rise are top concerns for voters of Punjab. Interestingly, the AAP which made ‘Free Bijli, Free Pani’ its plank in Delhi is trying to woo voters in Punjab by capitalising on the issue of inflated electricity bills in Punjab.
25% of respondents believe that farmers protest is a strong election issue & it’s AAP that is benefitting more than Shiromani Akali Dal on the issue. Voters seem to be put off by Akali Dal for taking in local BJP leaders into their fold
Q) Who do the people of Punjab want as their CM?
A) CAPT AMARINDER SINGH -19%
B) NAVJOT SINGH SIDHU 14%
C) SUKHBIR BADAL 17%
D) BHAGWANT SINGH MANN 6%
E) UNDECIDED – 44%
This question got me thinking about how one mistake could cost the AAP an election, which as of now, under the present circumstances, it seems to be winning. A major chunk of the 44% undecided vote could go in favour of Arvind Kejriwal led AAP if they project a leader with an honest, clean, and non-controversial image. Only 6% see Bhagwant Mann as Punjab’s Chief Minister at a time when the Sangrur MP is flexing muscles and exerting pressure on the party to declare him as the CM face. If AAP gives in to the pressure, it could face significant losses in Punjab. Bhagwant Mann’s ‘drunkard’ image is a complete no-no \ for the urban voter.
As of now, 19% want Captain Amarinder Singh as CM, followed by Akali Dal’s Sukhbir Badal & then Navjot Singh Sidhu. Sukhbir Badal seems to be retaining his voter base but is it strong enough to put him in the driver’s seat? Time will tell. In Captain’s case, Congress cadre’s sympathy for him post the flight with Sidhu is turning out to be beneficial.
TOP TAKEAWAYS FROM THE SURVEY
1. There is anti-incumbency against Congress in Punjab
2. AAP seems to be gaining from the Captain Amarinder Singh vs Navjot Singh Sidhu fight
3. While AAP seems to be gaining from Congress infighting and anti-incumbency, it could face significant losses if it projects Bhagwant Mann as CM face in Punjab
4. Sukhbir Badal is retaining a large chunk of his vote base especially in rural Punjab
5. Majority of voters in Punjab are in favour of the farmers protest, BJP has failed to convince voters about the benefits of the farm laws
6. There’s a split in Dalit vote. Akali Dal’s alliance with Mayawati is not earning dividends for the Akali Dal because on-ground Mayawati doesn’t seem to be a Dalit vote puller in Punjab