Top scientist Dr Rakesh Mishra, who is a director of CSIR-CCMB labs, talked to The Sunday Guardian on mutant variants. Excerpts:
Q: What exactly is the double mutant variant and how is it going to affect us in future?
A: Double mutant variant as the name suggests has two changes in its genome one L is converted into R at 452 position and in one E is converted Q at 484 position. So when these two mutations are together, we call it double mutant and in cases that we have sequence genomes, these two mutation are going together, so that way, its giving its signature to a new variant. Particularly in Maharashtra, about 20% of the cases are due to this new variant as of now, although in other states it’s not very prominent. It’s 1 or 2% or even less.
Q: How it is going to affect and who is responsible for this mutant variant?
A. Responsible! Virus mutate in natural ways and if we allow the virus to spread, then it will have more chance to mutate and only people are allowing it spread so people are responsible in that way but while this is natural process we should keep that also in mind, as far as problems are considered since even in Maharashtra, where it is seen in highest proportion which is only 20 %, that means 80% of the cases of Maharashtra are not because of this variant and in other states we don’t see this variant so much. So this means this variant is not responsible for the recent rise in the cases; something else is responsible. Also, we have not seen increased symptoms or mortality; in fact more and more people are asymptomatic; not more than 85% and mortality has decreased, which means we understand the disease better and proper care has been given by doctors and that’s why mortality is less. This also means that this variant, like other circulating variants, is not more dangerous. So it not a fast spreader, it is not clinically more dangerous, but whether it will be a problem for the vaccine or not that is something we have to confirm because there are only reports that both of these mutations can have immune escape behavior.
If it was actually happening at least in our case, we would have seen by now some re-infection cases which we have not seen so far. May be, there is less data, so we can’t conclude very much but early indications are that immunity acquired by prior infection and therefore by vaccination is protecting against this virus as of now; so more data will be required. There are experimental ways of figuring that out which is to culture the virus in laboratory and see if the anti-bodies of vaccinated people or recovered people can neutralise this virus and that’s what we are doing and I am sure many laboratories are doing in the country. We have started culturing this virus and in the coming weeks, we’ll know if any protection of vaccine is compromised in this case, but that will take a little time. Early indications are that we need not to worry in that context here.
Q: Does the government require more vaccines to control such mutant variants?
A: It is always good to have. Vaccine is a weapon against infection. The more weapons you have, the better you are. These vaccines have come as a emergency approval and within a year the vaccine is available which most of us thought will not be possible. That it has happened is a remarkable achievement of the industry, the scientists and also of our regulatory bodies who have gone so carefully and given these approvals and they have proven to be right because the vaccine is safe. Now more than 5 crore people have taken vaccines and they are doing well. Vaccination in UK is reducing the infection significantly, that observation has already been made, so it is a very good tool. More is better so because these vaccines are emergency approval, we don’t understand fully, particularly the long-term effects of these vaccines or age group and other medical conditions; how long they will protect, which variant which one will protect; all those data will emerge only after vaccination follow up which is happening in many countries, including in our country.
In the coming months, we will understand more about the utility of different vaccines. Whether one vaccine is better for younger people, and another is better for older people, we don’t know today, but we might understand it in the coming months; so therefore, it is very good idea to have more vaccines. We should have 6, 10 vaccines, so that we can ensure that the pandemic is controlled and we don’t get into more problems in the future. In fact, we should try and vaccinate at a very high rate the largest number of people possible before the virus recovers and makes more variants. We can eliminate the virus by vaccinating large number of people. So that is a good strategy to follow and while we do all this, whether vaccination or no vaccination, Covid appropriate behaviour is the most important point today. So even if we are vaccinated, it will take month, to month-and-a-half to get the full effect of the vaccine. The vaccine does not mean that you will not get infected, it means that we will not get very sick; that you make not require to go to the hospital and lives will be saved. But the virus may still hang around, so the most important thing is to wear masks and avoid crowing and do hand hygiene.
Q: How does mutation takes place?
A: Mutation is a natural process of these viruses like is common flu we see every year. We get cough and cold; so is the same with the virus. Once it comes, our system fights it and within a week or 10 days, we get rid of it, but after a few months, it changes its coat and comes back and infects again. So it is the same thing happening with the coronavirus. The Covid-19 virus keeps changing, it is very natural. In fact, all of us are different because our ancestors had some mutants which we have inherited; that’s why we look different; all of us have genomic chances. They originated with mutation at some point or the other and mutation, if it is good for the species, it persists and if they are bad, we perish. Similarly, in virus, if the mutation is bad, that particular virus will die and if the mutation in advantageous for the virus, it will adopt better and spread more. So, it is a natural process for all living beings; that’s why we see variety in life.
Q: Do you think in future it can be deadly if people do not take care of themselves, and not follow the guidelines?
A: Absolutely. If lakhs and lakhs of people are infected and the virus is having a good time spreading all over, it will generate more variants and there is no doubt about that. Maybe we are lucky that the double mutant is not very dangerous at this moment, but in future, some other variant may emerge that may be more infectious and that may not respect vaccination. That may cause more mortality. All those things are possible; therefore, wearing masks and maintaining social distancing and hygiene is a must to defeat this virus.