Will a third wave of Covid-19 hit the country and will it be as devastating as the second wave? Considering the nightmare scenario earlier this year, followed by predictions of cases starting to spike by August and latest by September-October, those in government, both at the Centre and the states, are keeping a hawk’s eye on the situation. However, even as cases are on the decline, worrying news is coming from cities such as Bengaluru and Hyderabad that hospital admissions are going up, with demand for oxygen also inching up. Although the cumulative number of cases in the country is going down, certain states are outliers—Kerala to be specific, which has the highest number of cases on any given day, with numbers touching nearly 14,000 on Sunday alone. The total number of cases in the country on Sunday was in the range of 40,000. States such as Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Maharashtra are also causing some concern. This shows that the second wave is slow in subsiding—perhaps because too many variants are surfacing—and may never plateau at the level of 10,000-odd cases, as it happened with the first wave. The third surge may come before the 10,000-plateau is hit, even though 24% of the country’s population has been vaccinated with one dose of anti-Covid vaccines. When the second surge started, Maharashtra and Kerala were registering high numbers, until the wave turned into a tsunami and hit the whole country. Hence, there is reason to be worried that these two states, especially Kerala, are not being able to handle the situation effectively this time as well.
It may seem a mystery why Kerala in particular, which was praised for its handling of the first Covid wave, is putting up such a miserable performance. Currently, this tiny state of around 3.5 crore people accounts for nearly one-third of India’s total cases. It will not be easy to explain the situation by saying Kerala’s numbers are high because its testing numbers are high. If that were the case, what explains Kerala’s TPR (test positivity rate), which is around 11% and is higher than the national average of around 7%? Kerala Health Minister Veena George has a better explanation. According to her, the state has over 550 clusters of high infection because of weddings and other celebrations—in other words, the Pinarayi Vijayan government is failing to put containment measures in place. In fact, even in terms of death rate, Kerala has a higher rate at over 420 deaths per million, compared to the country’s 304. In absolute terms too, Kerala, with over 14,000 Covid deaths is at number eight in the country—and not 28. And now allegations are that at least 6,000 deaths recorded by local bodies were not added to the official toll put out by the state government. So, the correct number of fatalities will be in the range of 20,000.
When its track record is so abysmal, what made the Pinarayi Vijayan government lift all restrictions because of Eid? When Kanwar yatra could be cancelled in both Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh—states where Covid numbers are plummeting—how could Kerala allow three days of public celebrations because of Eid? All communities—including Muslims—have been giving up or putting on hold their celebrations, religious or otherwise, since last year. The Muslim community would not have been unhappy if they were asked to celebrate Eid indoors this year too. The problem is, any spike in cases will not only jeopardise the lives of the residents of Kerala, but also of the rest of the country. CM Vijayan should not forget that the second Covid wave was partly blamed on the mass gathering at Kumbh, so the blame for any third wave will rest partly at his doorstep, and rightly so. As the Indian Medical Association said on Sunday, the Vijayan government’s action is totally “unwarranted and inappropriate”. At a time of national emergency, identity politics could have taken a back seat for sure. The case may now be in the Supreme Court, but any strictures at this point are too little, too late, which is sad.