A government-appointed committee has said that India has crossed the Covid-19 peak and predicted that the epidemic could be brought under control by early next year if all precautionary measures are perused.
The panel, however, added that the onset of winter and upcoming festivals may worsen the situation, leading to a major spike in corona cases. It can be as much as “up to 26 lakh cases within a month”, the committee said, adding that only 30 per cent of the population has developed immunity so far. “If all protocols are followed, the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active cases by February end,” it emphasised.
The committee predicted that by February when the pandemic could be contained if all preventive measures are put in place, the total number of infections could be about 105 lakh (10.5 million).
The panel said that in the absence of lockdown in March, India’s total deaths could have exceeded 25 lakh by August this year. Currently, the country has logged 1.14 lakh fatalities.
Lockdowns, however, are now undesirable and should be in place only in narrow geographical areas. The country, t h e committee said, should now move towards full resumption of activities.
There is some evidence that large gatherings cause rapid spread, the committee said, pointing to Kerala, where after the celebration of Onam festival from 22 August to 2 September, a sharp rise was observed. The infection probability increased by 32 per cent and the effectiveness of medical response dropped by 22 per cent for Kerala in September, the committee said.
The committee was appointed to come out with “Indian National Supermodel”—a mathematical model for Covid-19— that can shed light on the likely trajectory of the pandemic in India. Its members are from IITs and branches of the Indian Council of Medical Research, the country’s nodal body in the fight against coronavirus.