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India’s foreign trade: Examining September 2020

Overall imports in April-September 2020-21 are estimated to be $204.12 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 35.43 per cent over the same period last year.

Major commodities/commodity groups which have recorded positive growth during September 2020 vis-à-vis September 2019 are other cereals (337.22%), iron ore (109.65%), rice (93.86%), oil meals (47.52%), carpet (42.89%), ceramic products & glassware (36.17%), oil seeds (35.69%), cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (33.57%), drugs & pharmaceuticals (24.38%), handicrafts excl. handmade carpet (21.82%), meat, dairy & poultry products (19.97%), Jute mfg. including floor covering (18.64%), cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. (15.39%), spices (11.44%), tobacco (11.09%) and RMG of all textiles(10.22%). 

India’s overall exports ( Merchandise And Services combined) in April-September 2020-21* are estimated to be USD 221.86 Billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 16.66 per cent over the same period last year. Overall imports in April-September 2020-21* are estimated to be USD 204.12 Billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 35.43 per cent over the same period last year. 

I. MERCHANDISE TRADE EXPORTS (including re-exports) 

• Exports in September 2020 were USD 27.58 Billion, as compared to USD 26.02 Billion in September 2019, exhibiting a positive growth of 5.99 per cent. In Rupee terms, exports were Rs. 2,02,694.07 Crore in September 2020, as compared to Rs. 1,85,642.32 Crore in September 2019, registering a positive growth of 9.19 per cent.

 • Major commodities/ commodity groups which have recorded positive growth during September 2020 vis-à-vis September 2019 are Other cereals (337.22%), Iron Ore (109.65%), Rice (93.86%), Oil Meals (47.52%), Carpet (42.89%), Ceramic products & glassware (36.17%), Oil seeds (35.69%), Cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (33.57%), Drugs & pharmaceuticals (24.38%), Handicrafts excl. handmade carpet (21.82%), Meat, dairy & poultry products (19.97%), Jute mfg. including floor covering (18.64%), Cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. (15.39%), Spices (11.44%), Tobacco (11.09%) and RMG of all textiles (10.22%). 

• Major commodities/ commodity groups which have recorded negative growth during September 2020 vis-à-vis September 2019 are Cashew (-44.25%), Gems & jewellery (-24.67%), Man-made yarn/fabs./made-ups etc. (-9.12%), Mica, Coal & other ores, minerals including processed minerals (-6.71%), Marine products (-5.41%), Leather & leather products (-3.36%), Tea (-2.27%) and Fruits & Vegetables (-1.44%).

 • Cumulative value of exports for the period April-September 2020- 21 was USD 125.25 Billion (Rs. 9,38,529.94 Crore) as against USD 159.16 Billion (Rs. 11,13,886.17 Crore) during the period AprilSeptember 2019-20, registering a negative growth of (-) 21.31 per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of (-) 15.74 per cent in Rupee terms). 

• Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in September 2020 were USD 21.27 Billion, as compared to USD 19.00 Billion in September 2019, registering a positive growth of 11.94 per cent. Non-petroleum and NonGems and Jewellery exports in April-September 2020-21 were USD 104.51 Billion, as compared to USD 118.65 Billion for the corresponding period in 2019-20, which is a decrease of (-) 11.92 per cent. 

IMPORTS

 • Imports in September 2020 were USD 30.31 Billion (Rs. 2,22,708.15 Crore), which is a decline of (-) 19.60 per cent lower in Dollar terms and (-) 17.18 per cent in Rupee terms over imports of USD 37.69 Billion (Rs 2,68,891.09 Crore) in September 2019. Cumulative value of imports for the period AprilSeptember 2020-21 was USD 148.69 Billion (Rs. 11,14,686.58 Crore), as against USD 248.08 Billion (Rs. 17,35,550.99 Crore) during the period AprilSeptember 2019-20, registering a negative growth of (-) 40.06 per cent in Dollar terms and a negative growth of (-) 35.77 per cent in Rupee terms. 

• Major commodity groups of import showing negative growth in September 2020 over the corresponding month of last year are: 

CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS 

• Oil imports in September 2020 were USD 5.83 Billion (Rs. 42,812.35 Crore), which was 35.88 percent lower in Dollar terms (33.95 percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD 9.09 Billion (Rs. 64,815.60 Crore) in September 2019. Oil imports in April-September 2020-21 were USD 31.86 Billion (Rs. 2,38,995.70 Crore) which was 51.14 per cent lower in Dollar terms (47.60 percent lower in Rupee terms) compared to USD 65.20 Billion (Rs. 4,56,108.64 Crore), over the same period last year.

 • In this connection it is mentioned that the global Brent price ($/bbl) has decreased by 34.08% in September 2020 vis-à-vis September 2019 as per data available from World Bank.

 • Non-oil imports in September 2020 were estimated at USD 24.48 Billion (Rs. 1,79,895.80 Crore) which was 14.43 per cent lower in Dollar terms (11.85 percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD 28.61 Billion (Rs. 2,04,075.49 Crore) in September 2019. Non-oil imports in AprilSeptember 2020-21 were USD 116.83 Billion (Rs. 8,75,690.88 Crore) which was 36.12 per cent lower in Dollar terms (31.56 percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD 182.88 Billion (Rs. 12,79,442.35 Crore) in April-September 2019-20. 

• Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports were USD 23.88 Billion in September 2020, recording a negative growth of (-) 12.63 per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports of USD 27.33 Billion in September 2019. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports were USD 110.05 Billion in AprilSeptember 2020-21, recording a negative growth of (-) 34.13 per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and NonGold imports USD 167.08 Billion in April-September 2019-20. 

II. TRADE IN SERVICES EXPORTS (Receipts)

 • As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15th October 2020, exports in August 2020 were USD 16.44 Billion (Rs. 1,22,768.07 Crore) registering a negative growth of (-) 9.88 per cent in dollar terms, vis-àvis August 2019. The estimated value of services export for September 2020* is USD 16.34 Billion. 

IMPORTS (Payments) 

• As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15th October 2020 imports in August 2020 were USD 9.60 Billion (Rs. 71,662.62 Crore) registering a negative growth of (-) 20.06 per cent in dollar terms, vis-àvis August 2019. The estimated value of service import for September 2020* is USD 9.49 Billion. 

III.TRADE BALANCE MERCHANDISE:

The trade deficit for September 2020 was estimated at USD 2.72 Billion as against the deficit of USD 11.67 Billion in September 2019, which is a decline of (-) 76.66 percent. *Note: The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for August 2020. The data for September 2020 is an estimation, which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release. 

SERVICES 

• As per RBI’s Press Release dated 15th October 2020 the trade balance in Services (i.e. Net Services export) for August 2020 is USD 6.84 Billion. The estimated trade balance in September 2020* is USD 6.85 Billion. 

OVERALL TRADE BALANCE 

• Taking merchandise and services together, overall trade surplus for AprilSeptember 2020-21* is estimated at USD 17.74 Billion as compared to the deficit of USD 49.91 Billion in April-September 2019-20.

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