The BJP’s double engine strategy appears to be well on its way to taking Delhi. As of 11:30 a.m. on Saturday, the party was on course to dethrone Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) after three consecutive Assembly elections. If the trends hold, this would mark the BJP’s return to power in the Union Territory after 27 years.
According to reports from the Election Commission of India, the BJP was leading on 44 of the 70 seats—thus well past the majority mark of 35 —while AAP had taken a lead in 26 constituencies. The Congress mostly stayed out of the contest.
The BJP had run its election campaign, anchored by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on three prominent themes: to continue AAP’s welfare schemes; to deliver the double engine for development; and to intensify its fight against what it has called “AAP’s corruption”.
Meanwhile, AAP remained plagued by issues of anti-incumbency alongside internal disruptions whereby several of the senior leaders remain in jail for long periods.
The second reason was AAP alienation from middle-class society and the middle classes. Though lower-income groups immensely benefited from their welfare-oriented style of governance, middle-class constituents, who derived no direct or indirect benefits for themselves, would get frustrated that roads and basic civic infrastructure worsened across the city of Delhi.
Here are five key reasons why the BJP looks set to grab Delhi for the next five years.
1. Strong Middle-Class Outreach
The AAP was, in the beginning, a byproduct of the middle class’s dissatisfaction with the political system. However, slowly and steadily, it has gained the perception that it is now a party, which primarily engages in welfare measures for the poor, such as free bus rides for women and 200 units of free electricity.
Though Arvind Kejriwal tried to modify his narrative to look more middle-class-oriented in his campaign speeches, it may be too little, too late.
The BJP, by implementing the rather intensive outreach programs and interactions with RWAs (Resident Welfare Associations), also succeeded in capturing the middle-class vote. The party’s appeal was further fortified through the significant tax relief given in the Union Budget.
While definitions of the middle class vary, a 2022 report by the People Research on India’s Consumer Economy states that this demographic constitutes 67.16% of Delhi’s population. The BJP’s successful engagement with this group appears to have yielded strong electoral gains.
2. Assurance That AAP Welfare Schemes Will Continue
Although criticisms against welfare programs earlier had branded them as revadis or freebies, BJP was careful enough to reassure voters in Delhi that it would not withdraw the welfare schemes introduced by AAP if voted to power.
It made the announcement when Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself said, “AAP is spreading lies that BJP winning the elections would cut benefits given to the underprivileged.”.
By promising to preserve these schemes and also talking about issues such as Hindu pride and national identity, the BJP was an AAP-plus alternative: welfare with its own ideological messaging.
3. Bad Infrastructure: Roads and Sewers
One of the most significant reasons for frustration among Delhi residents has been the degrading state of roads, sewers, and garbage disposal. Over-flowing drains, potholes, and erratic waste management had people upset.
Since AAP also manages the MCD, it was not possible for it to deflect the issue at hand toward BJP or even Lieutenant Governor.
A senior AAP leader admitted, “We could not improve roads or ensure better garbage management… In gated colonies and middle- and upper-middle-class areas, the poor condition of the roads has emerged as a significant issue.”
Another AAP leader acknowledged, “Poor roads, cleanliness and overflowing sewers are usually associated with unauthorised colonies but over the past two years have become a pan-Delhi problem.”
4. The Continuous LG-AAP Conflict
The AAP has consistently blamed the Lt Governor, who possesses a very significant amount of power in Delhi, for causing the delay in the civic work and infrastructure projects. However, prolonged tension between the state government and the LG’s office seems to have frustrated the voters.
Many seemed to decide that a BJP-led government would function much better in coordination with the Centre-appointed LG. This fits the BJP’s double-engine government narrative, which states that the same party running the Centre and the local administration makes things go much smoother.
5. Anti-Incumbency Sentiment
AAP has been in power in Delhi since 2015, and its decade-long rule has led to natural voter fatigue. The party’s recognition of anti-incumbency was evident in its last-minute candidate replacements, but these adjustments were not enough to counter dissatisfaction with certain MLAs, who were seen as unresponsive and disconnected from their constituencies.
While AAP’s governance had brought the party many significant victories in the past, it seems that the present election is different, and the voters were seeking a change in leadership.
