A vicious terrorist strike on April 22 in Baisaran Valley close to Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, has once again raised alarm about the precarious security dynamics of South Asia. Militant gunmen, reportedly affiliated with The Resistance Front (TRF), killed a minimum of 26 individuals and wounded over 20 in one of the deadliest attacks on civilians since the 2008 Mumbai attack.
Eyewitnesses claimed that the attackers, dressed in traditional clothing, made tourists read Islamic verses, killing those who refused. Among the victims were people from Indian states and a Nepali citizen.
The shocking attack highlights underlying instability in the region, echoing a warning from a recently declassified 1993 CIA report obtained by Firstpost. Entitled India-Pakistan, Prospects for War in the 1990s, the report forecast that a serious regional crisis could rapidly escalate into nuclear war, driven by fears of Pakistan’s military inferiority at the hands of India.
India will not start war, the report said, but Pakistan’s past defeats have conditioned its use of nuclear weapons as a shield. It also cautioned against “hair-trigger responses” that might quickly take a confrontation to nuclear status through miscalculation or misunderstanding.
Economically, both countries realize the costs of war being prohibitive, with Pakistan’s financial issues also stretching its capability to sustain military parity. The CIA observed the potential for military coups in Pakistan and the probable effect on Indo-Pak relations, where even under a military regime, Islamabad would seek to avoid confrontation.
Though India and Pakistan have so far navigated crises without any worsening, the Pahalgam disaster is a sharp reminder of the enduring volatility of the region where a single incident of terror might just unpick a precarious balance.
