Indus Water Treaty: Suspension Triggers Floods in Pakistan, How Will India Manage? | TDG Explainer

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 has been a crucial water-sharing treaty between India and Pakistan. Yet, tensions have emerged, and India recently suspended the treaty. This action has not only frightened Pakistan but also the entire South Asian community.

Meanwhile, rumors abound that China may gain control of the Brahmaputra River, which runs through India, China, and Bangladesh.

Indus Water Treaty

The World Bank facilitated the IWT to settle water conflicts between India and Pakistan. It splits the Indus River and its tributaries into three categories:

Eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) were apportioned to India.

Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) were apportioned to Pakistan.

The treaty has been a shining example of conflict resolution by peaceful means, in spite of political tensions. But continuing disagreements, including terrorism across borders, have tested the agreement. India’s recent suspension of the treaty is a stunning reversal of both countries’ management of their common water resources.

Why Did India Suspend the Treaty?

India suspended the IWT for a number of reasons, the most pressing being a fatal attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, attributed to Pakistan-based militants. As a response, India chose to suspend the treaty with Pakistan. This action upsets collaboration and jeopardizes Pakistan’s water security, particularly considering its dependence on the western rivers for agriculture and economy.

India views the suspension as a means of pressuring Pakistan for supporting terrorism. The move is a threat that Pakistan’s actions may cost it economically in the long term.

Influence on Both India and Pakistan

Both countries are highly dependent on the Indus River system, and therefore any disruption would prove disastrous. India controls the eastern rivers, but developments on the western rivers would be impacted by the suspension. India has also urged quick-tracking of its hydroelectric projects on the western rivers, which will cut down Pakistan’s access to water. The impact is not as bad for India but worse for Pakistan, which is more dependent on the western rivers.

For Pakistan, the suspension has far-reaching implications. The agricultural industry, the backbone of the economy, may suffer from water shortages. Farmers rely on the west rivers for irrigation, and the disruption would lead to crop failure, economic downturn, and social unrest. Water scarcity would also politically destabilize Pakistan, aggravating long-standing grievances.

How Pakistan is Facing Flooding Due to this Suspension ?

The suspension is also a source of concern regarding flooding in Pakistan. The Jhelum River, which is one of the western rivers under Pakistani control, has witnessed peaks in water levels, resulting in floods in regions such as Azad Kashmir. If India releases additional water from its reservoirs, the downstream regions in Pakistan would be exposed to an even higher degree.

PoJK: Suspension of Indus Water Treaty showing its impact. Massive shocking trouble for Pakistan.

Muzaffarabad, flooding starts in Pakistan after India unexpectedly releases water in the Jhelum River without prior notification#IndusWaterTreaty gone for good. pic.twitter.com/4cGoLjmMJX

— Kanwaljit Arora (@mekarora) April 26, 2025

Pakistan has blamed India for unleashing water without prior notice, which poses flood hazards. India refers to a collapse of trust and coordination. The absence of communications facilitates such events, further complicating the situation.

What if China Stops Water from the Brahmaputra River?

Things would become even grimmer if China wields power over the Brahmaputra River. The river passes through China, India, and Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh depend on it for drinking water, farming, and hydroelectric energy.

China has already constructed large hydropower facilities along the Brahmaputra, heightening fears of water flow. If China were to divert or dam the river, India’s northeast states—Assam and Arunachal Pradesh in particular—would suffer acute shortages of water. China’s increasing leverage could render it more difficult for India to negotiate water-sharing treaties, which might further aggravate tensions.

Even though there is no current indication that China will halt the flow of the river, the absence of official water-sharing agreements heightens the threat of conflict.

Main Sources of Water for Both India and Pakistan

For Pakistan, the Indus River system is the primary water source. The three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—provide nearly 80% of Pakistan’s surface water. These rivers sustain Pakistan’s agricultural sector, which produces much of the country’s food and cotton. The treaty’s suspension threatens this crucial supply, leading to possible water shortages.

India too depends on the Indus River system, albeit with more control over the eastern rivers—Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi. These rivers primarily flow on Indian soil, giving India improved water security. Yet, being dependent on Pakistan-controlled rivers’ western rivers for hydropower projects leaves India exposed to threats of interruption of water flow due to Pakistani action.

India’s Water Management Post-Treaty Suspension

Since the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, India now has full control over the eastern rivers of Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi, which are critical for its water security, particularly in agriculturally prosperous states such as Punjab and Haryana. Nonetheless, dealing with this added quantity of water poses a major problem.

The task of governing these rivers further burdens its infrastructure, which does not have the capacity to carry out efficient water distribution between agriculture, industry, and household requirements. Over-extraction, unrestricted use, and inefficient conservation can exacerbate the situation.

Furthermore, governing the long-term sustainability of these resources needs planning, investment in water conservation, and fair distribution mechanisms. If left unaddressed, India may experience environmental degradation and worsening water conflicts, both internally and with other countries.

Will the Suspension Impact India’s Relations with Other Neighboring Nations?

Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty can strain India’s relations with Pakistan, but ripple effects can fall on other nearby countries as well. India borders Bangladesh (the Brahmaputra) and Nepal (the Koshi, Gandak, among others), whose river management becomes a contentious point as India stands firm on controlling water resources. Diplomatic tensions with these countries would complicate regional cooperation and stability over water-sharing agreements.

Further, China’s growing role in the region, particularly over the Brahmaputra River, may increase geopolitical tensions, which would affect India’s capacity to negotiate water-sharing agreements over its borders.

Broader Impact of IWT Suspension

The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty marks a significant escalation in India-Pakistan tensions, threatening regional stability. With water scarcity becoming a growing concern, this breakdown risks economic damage and social unrest. The potential manipulation of the Brahmaputra River by China adds further complexity.

India must pursue careful diplomacy with Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh to ensure equitable access to water, while avoiding deeper geopolitical conflicts. The future of South Asia’s water-sharing hinges on cooperation and sustainable management.