The India-Pakistan war 2025 looks more unstable than ever and both the countries have quickly modernized their military since the 2019 Kashmir clashes. With fresh memories of cross-border bombings and recent threats after a terror attack in Indian Kashmir, the risk of escalation is perilously high now. Pakistan denies any role but threatens to retaliate with force if need arises.
India, led by PM Narendra Modi, has threatened punishment “beyond imagination.” Experts caution that both countries now have upgraded aerial, missile, and drone capabilities—making even a small strike much more perilous. The presence of nuclear weapons, local politics, and outside alliances such as China’s increasing support for Pakistan introduces a complicated new factor.
Kashmir Tensions Reignite Military Alerts
India has blamed Pakistan for a deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir. Pakistan rejects the charge but fears an imminent Indian strike. PM Modi’s strong response reflects public pressure and political commitment to national security. Pakistan has responded by test-firing a ballistic missile, warning it will defend itself at all costs.
In 2019, India bombed Pakistan following a terror bombing. Pakistan returned fire with an air operation and downed an Indian plane. No nuclear attacks were made, but the confrontation almost got away from everyone. Experts now opine that both nations are surer of themselves when it comes to managing restricted conflict, rendering a repeat many times more possible—but also hazardous.
Rafale vs J-10
India has acquired 36 French-manufactured Rafale fighters since 2019. These high-end fighters now overwhelm its air strike capability. Pakistan, on the other hand, introduced more than 20 Chinese J-10 fighters, its most advanced fighter to date.
Both planes are equipped with long-range, beyond-visual-range missiles—the Rafale’s Meteor, and the J-10’s PL-15—each of which can change the course of battle.
Air Defences Upgraded: S-400 vs HQ-9
India currently deploys the Russian S-400, one of the world’s most sophisticated air defense systems. Pakistan responds with China’s HQ-9, modeled on Russia’s S-300. These platforms fill significant gaps both nations lacked during the 2019 clash.
Crewed missions can now take a backseat. Both nations favour drones or surface-to-surface missiles, eliminating pilot risks. India has purchased Heron Mk2 drones from Israel and awaits US Predators. Pakistan responds with Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones from Turkey. The UAVs offer a cheap yet lethal substitute to fighter jets.
China Looms Over the Battlefield
China is still a wildcard. It supports Pakistan and has provided the J-10 and HQ-9 systems. It also has a strained Himalayan border with India. Any India-Pakistan confrontation will attract Beijing’s attention, and this is not only a regional but a geopolitical hot spot.
India faces a dilemma. How many air squadrons can it commit to Pakistan while guarding the Chinese front? This two-front risk shapes New Delhi’s decision-making, especially when the Rafale fleet remains limited. In contrast, Pakistan can focus its air force solely on the western front.
High-Risk Appetite, Low Nuclear Threshold?
Experts caution that both countries now demonstrate a greater taste for escalation. But nuclear arms are still the option of last resort. The risk is miscalculation. As Stimson Center’s Frank O’Donnell describes it, ambiguity about what constitutes escalation makes war very dangerous.
Pakistan’s missile test and India’s belligerent stance reflect a perilous course. Each side is more confident than in 2019. But with drones, missiles, and new fighter jets in the mix, the next confrontation could escalate too quickly for diplomacy to handle. As Kaiser Tufail, a former Pakistani pilot, cautioned, “If you go beyond what we saw in 2019, it is very risky.
