Haryana May Prove Rajasthan, MP Redux For Congress

The internal situation in Congress has become grim due to the internal conflicts among leaders. Experts suggest that the discontent of senior Congress leader Kumar Selja has inadvertently allowed the BJP to re-enter the race. In the final days of campaigning, the party that executes its strategy effectively may gain an advantage on the voting day. The situation for Congress in Haryana resembles the situation in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh before the two states went to polls; there was initially a favourable wave for Congress at the election announcement, but infighting after ticket distribution drastically altered the landscape.

The BJP, previously viewed as weak, has re-entered the competition. The central Congress leadership recognised the internal power struggles in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, with Sachin Pilot once again becoming a central issue. Congress acknowledges that if they had addressed Pilot’s concerns earlier, the situation could have been different. Similarly, had Jyotiraditya Scindia been appeased with a Rajya Sabha seat in 2020, Congress might have avoided a significant defeat in 2023.

Congress leadership underestimated the situation in Haryana. Bhupendra Singh Hooda has been recognized as Haryana’s most popular leader for two decades, maintaining significant influence even after ten years out of power. Although the leadership knows this, they failed to resolve ongoing disputes, leading to open resentment among leaders during the elections. Additionally, tensions grew as Hooda sought more tickets for her supporters while claiming the Chief Minister position, which frustrated those who did not receive tickets.
Following the ticket distribution Selja’s silence and withdrawal from the campaign did not go unnoticed by the BJP. The ruling party seized the opportunity and used Selja’s silence as an opportunity as a strategy to turn the tide in their favor. They not only used Selja’s dissatisfaction as a strategic advantage but also amplified Rahul Gandhi’s controversial statement about ending reservation in America. Meanwhile, posters proclaiming “This time, Hooda government” appeared throughout Haryana.

This shift created complications for Congress. As a prominent Dalit leader, Selja’s displeasure risks dividing Dalit votes, which is critical for Congress as they aim to unite Jats, Dalits, and Muslims to secure a majority.