With the US and NATO troops set to leave Afghanistan completely by 11 September this year, India has started preparing its strategy to deal with the situation arising out of this development. What has caused concern in the Indian diplomatic establishment is the spike in violence and likelihood of Taliban’s return to Kabul, apart from Pakistan’s bid to enhance its influence in Afghanistan.
“If such a scenario becomes a reality, then there will be a strong possibility of Afghanistan turning into a safe haven for terrorist groups,” say MEA sources. With all this in view, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is said to have held a high-level meeting to discuss and prepare a robust strategy to deal with what might happen after the withdrawal of Northern Alliance troops from Afghanistan.
According to top MEA sources, India’s diplomatic effort will be to ensure that important and powerful countries of the world keep their focus on whatever development takes place in Afghanistan even after the departure of US and Northern Alliance troops from there. India wants the USA, European nations and Arab countries to continue to be vigilant about the happenings in Afghanistan. India is impressing upon the world community that the situation is volatile in Kabul with violence continuing in the country. With US troops leaving Kabul, all is not well in Afghanistan whose soil may be used to host terrorist organisations if it was turned a blind eye to. This is the message India is said to have given to the United Nations as well, through MEA’s diplomatic channel.
Similarly, Jaishankar also managed to drive home this message during his meeting with a top European Union (EU) representative in London in the first week of May. Sources said that Indian diplomats have been asked to update their counterparts in USA, UK, Germany, France, Italy and other powerful countries about the Afghanistan scenario so that it does not get ignored after the final troops leave Kabul in September.
Sources say that the EU is quite convinced of India’s interpretation of what may follow the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. EU nations are also worried about regional security if Taliban manages to gain control of power in Kabul and Pakistan uses its old policy of conspiring with Haqqani Network and Afghan Taliban to create trouble for Indian constructive and positive missions in Kabul.
When S Jaishankar met EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell Fontelles on the sidelines of a meeting of the G7 in London, the former gave the latter a detailed perspective of Afghan situation in the wake of US troop withdrawal. What India is happy about is that the EU has taken a strong note of ongoing violence in Afghanistan where Pakistan is supposed to control the situation.
European Union called for an “immediate, permanent and comprehensive” ceasefire in Afghanistan. India considered it a positive development as far as its strategy to rope in the global community is concerned. Moreover, Jaishankar and Borrell had underlined the importance of ensuring that the “soil of Afghanistan is not used by terrorist groups to threaten the security of India and the EU”. EU representative is said to have been more concerned about the possibility of Talibani terrorism rearing its head again in changed circumstances in Afghanistan.
According to sources, the EU representative has assured India that the issue will be taken up on other key international forums such as the UN so that nothing in Kabul goes unnoticed. Meanwhile, apart from Pakistan’s conspiratorial activities against India’s interest in Afghanistan, New Delhi is also concerned about China seeking to grow its influence in the troubled land-locked nation. Sources said that what gives India a sigh of relief is that the USA, Australia, Japan and other nations are also keeping a close watch on how Beijing behaves in Afghanistan. China has sought to play a role of a mediator in Afghan peace talks. Beijing even seeks to host the Taliban for negotiations, a development which India sees as the Dragon’s hyperactive behaviour exposing its desire to expand its tentacles in Kabul.