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INDIA NEWS-JAN KI BAAT POLL PREDICTS BJP WIN IN UP DESPITE DEFECTIONS

The poll predicts a clear win for AAP in Punjab; a close BJP-Congress fight in Uttarakhand; BJP win in Goa.

India News-Jan Ki Baat’a January 2022 opinion poll on Uttar Pradesh predicts Yogi Adityanath’s return as Chief Minister but also shows a slight decline in seats due to the defection of OBC strongman Swami Prasad Maurya and his loyalists to the Samajwadi Party.

The India News-Jan Ki Baat opinion poll has projected victory for the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh by predicting a seat share of 226-246 for it. The projected vote share for the BJP is in a range of 39-40%

The Samajwadi Party, which seems to be getting stronger because of the back to back inductions of OBC leaders, including that of OBC strongman and former UP Labour Minister Swami Prasad Maurya, is projected to get anywhere between 144-160 seats. As per the opinion poll, Akhilesh Yadav’s party may end up with a vote share of 34.5%-36%.

BSP, whose chief Mayawati doesn’t seem to be aggressively campaigning this time, could get anywhere between 8-12 seats and a vote share of 13-13.5%.

Congress whose campaign is tailored around Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s “Ladki Hoon, Lad Sakti Hoon” slogan, is projected to get a single digit seat share, which will be in the range of 0-1. Its projected vote share is in the range of 4-6%.

As per the opinion poll, those leaders who’ve defected from the BJP in the last one month could win their existing seats if given tickets by SP. Out of the 12 leaders who have defected, 9 leaders are projected to win their seats. Swami Prasad Maurya who joined the SP today is projected win from his constituency Padrauna.

UTTARAKHAND

The India News-Jan Ki Baat opinion poll for Uttarakhand predicts a neck and neck fight between BJP and Congress, with a slight edge to the Pushkar Singh Dhami-led BJP government.

BJP is projected to get anywhere between 34 and 38 seats in the 70-seat Assembly and Congress, which is yet to announce its Chief Ministerial candidate, may end up getting anywhere between 24-33 seats. Aam Aadmi Party, which is a new entrant in Uttarakhand, is projected to get anywhere between 2-6 seats.

BJP’s projected vote share is expected to be 38%. Congress may get a vote share of 36%, AAP could get 13%, whereas BSP and others could end up with 2% and 11%, respectively.

Pushkar Singh Dhami is the most preferred choice as CM, with 42% respondents to the survey saying they want him to return as Chief Minister in Uttarakhand. Senior Congress leader and former Uttarakhand Chief Minister Harish Rawat is the second choice with 24% support. BJP leader Anil Baluni has a share of 18%.

PUNJAB

The India News-Jan Ki Baat opinion poll gives a clear majority to the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab. If the numbers are to go by, AAP is projected to get anywhere between 58-65 seats in the border state and a vote share of 38%-39%.

While Congress may get 32-42 seats, with a vote share of 34.5%-35%.

Akali Dal is predicted to retain its strongholds but may not see a sharp incline in its seats. Akali Dal may get anywhere between 15-18 seats and a vote share of 19%-20%. BJP which recently has accused Congress of deliberately compromising Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s security, is projected to get 1-2 seats. Captain Amarinder Singh’s Lok Congress Party may not get even one seat.

GOA

In Goa, the opinion poll projects 18-22 seats for incumbent BJP under Pramod Sawant, while AAP, which is a new entrant in Goa is projected to get more seats than Congress. Despite being jolted by a spate of defections, BJP is projected to emerge as the single largest party in Goa with predicting 18-22 seats in the 40-seat assembly. Its vote share is likely to be in the range of 37%-40%, which is at least 5% more than what it got last time.

While the Congress is projected to get 5-6 seats, AAP could have a slender edge over it with 7-9 seats. The AAP’s vote share is projected to be 23%-24% and Congress may end up with 19%-20% vote share.

Trinamool Congress may not win even a single seat, while its pre poll ally, Maharashtra Gomantak Party, is projected to get 1-2 seats. MGP is projected to win its stronghold seat Marcaim. Independents and other parties in the fray could get anywhere between 4-6 seats and their vote share is projected to be anywhere between 11%-18%.

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