Ahead of Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, an opinion poll done by India News-Jan ki Baat between 22 November and 20 December 2021 has predicted victory for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The saffron party, which got 308 seats on its own last time, is projected to get anywhere between 233 to 252 seats of 403 seats in the UP Assembly.
SEAT SHARE PROJECTION FOR UP
As per the India News-Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll, BJP is projected to get anywhere between 233 and 252 seats, Samajwadi Party could get between 135-149 seats, the Congress continues to remain in single digits and is projected to get anywhere between 3-6 seats, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party could bag 11-12 seats and others may end up getting anywhere between 1-4 seats
VOTE SHARE PROJECTION FOR UP
The poll has predicted a vote share of 39% for BJP, Samajwadi Party is predicted to get its highest ever vote share of 35%, Bahujan Samaj Party may end up with a vote share of 14%, Congress is predicted to get 5% vote share and other parties are projected to get 7% vote share
55% RESPONDENTS WANT YOGI AS CM
As per the opinion poll, Yogi Adityanath is the most preferred choice as Chief Minister with 55% respondents wanting to see him return at the helm of affairs in Uttar Pradesh. 31% said Akhilesh Yadav should become CM, followed by 10% giving Mayawati a thumbs up and a mere 2% saying Priyanka Gandhi Vadra should be CM of Uttar Pradesh
MODI WAVE IN UTTAR PRADESH?
75% respondents are of the view that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s welfare schemes are a huge factor and will act in favour of the BJP in the elections.
TOP ELECTION ISSUES
23% respondents said that they will cast their vote on the issue of development. 24% said they’re going to vote on the basis of caste and religion and 21% said they will vote on the basis of law and order, while 10% said they will vote on the issue of inflation. Meanwhile, for 1%, Ram Mandir is a factor on the basis of which they’ll cast their votes.
THE ANTI INCUMBENCY FACTOR
31% respondents to the opinion poll said that there is anti-incumbency against the Yogi Adityanath government; 42% are of the opinion that there’s anti incumbency against the candidate and 27% say that there’s no anti incumbency at all. Responding to another question on if people are happy with government’s work, 52% responded in affirmative & 48% said they are unhappy.
OTHER OVERALL FINDINGS OF THE OPINION POLL:
1) Yogi Adityanath to return as CM of Uttar Pradesh; 2) BJP projected to win more than 235 seats; 3) BJP gaining from Mayawati’s depleting vote share; 4) BJP tightens grip In Awadh & Bundelkhand; 5) Despite SP gaining in Purvanchal, BJP remains ahead; 6) More women with BJP than Samajwadi Party; 7) PM Modi’s welfare schemes driving women towards BJP in Western U.P; 8) Muslim, Yadav voters are strongly with Akhilesh; 9) Mayawati’s vote share expected to further decline; 10) BJP projected to lead in Hathras and Lakhimpur Kheri; 11) 60% Jats in Western Uttar Pradesh with RLD; 12) Congress vote share will remain less than 10%; 13) BJP vote share expected to be around 39%; 14) Alliance with smaller parties helping Akhilesh; 15) Division in Kurmi Patel votes is denting BJP vote share; 16) Samajwadi Party expected to get its highest vote share; 17) for the first time in 30 years, fight for UP is largely bipolar; 18) Farmers’ protest not a factor in Purvanchal; 20) Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s “Ladki hoon, lad sakti hoon” not converting to votes.