Recently, S. Jaishankar, India’s External Affairs Minister gave a keynote speech at the 7th Indian Ocean Conference in Perth, Australia about security interests to India and beyond. This major gathering attended by his Australian counterpart, Penny Wong, who warmly welcomed Dr Jaishankar, shows the degree to which the two countries have joint commitment to security and cooperation in the region. But other Quad members, the US and Japan as seen by their much lower level visible presence at the conference may be telling? This concern that the Quad remains of high status to the US was eloquently expressed in this paper in an opinion column (Joyeeta Basu, Feb 8). The good news following that piece, is that there is/has been very recently a lengthy visit (Feb 18 to 23) to India and the region by a very senior, US diplomat on which such issues and related can be substantively discussed.
It should not be forgotten what goes on throughout the Indian Ocean is of vital importance to the world and big international economic players like the US and Japan. For according to the Carnegie Endowment, “Around 80 percent of the world’s maritime oil and 9.84 billion tons of cargo pass through the entire Indian Ocean region, annually.” From Wong in her own remarks in Perth, not only noting this vital trade, but she also underlined, “Countries of the Indo-Pacific face China’s rapid military build-up, without the transparency and reassurance that the region looks for from great powers.” Clearly, the US, and Japan cannot afford to take their eye off the ball in such security matters around and near India.
India’s foreign minister, underlined further of such importance in his speech: “As we gaze at the Indian Ocean, the challenges besetting the world are on full display there. At one extremity, we see conflict, threats to maritime traffic, piracy and terrorism. At the other, there are challenges to international law, concerns about freedom of navigation and overflights, and of safeguarding of sovereignty and of independence.”
Added to this are long time and consistently relevant assertions applicable to the region by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, that India will not be bullied by anyone and will continue to take concrete steps to prevent it. In fact, due to the PM’s leadership, New Delhi may represent the strongest advocate in protecting Indian Ocean regional stability and bordering countries from undue influence by negative actors.
For Penny Wong, she pointed to specific potential flashpoints, “ ..from the Taiwan Strait to the Malacca Strait, with its critical connection to the Andaman Sea…”
Jaishankar went on underlining though, positive protection and security arrangements, by the “…notable development… of the Quad grouping. Its upgradation to the Summit level is a message in itself.”
Now regarding Japan, I have also argued previously elsewhere that with “belligerent”, nuclear-armed North Korea but an hour flight away from that islands nation and its missiles minutes away from Tokyo, Japan may have greater preoccupations than with the Quad on Indian Ocean security, albeit no small interest on Indian Ocean shipping. Combined with the fact that China is in such close proximity with its massive military, defending the Japan homeland than lending assets to defend India may be a greater priority, overall to that Quad member. Yet, a Mainland China strengthened in the Indian Ocean makes it even a greater threat to Japan, however you locate it.
For the other Quad member, the US, its three current focuses are putting pressure on its military resource capabilities. Presently, they are extended to the Middle East, near and to Ukraine and the seas off China. Except for the very western part of the Indian Ocean concerning maritime and cargo freight, the vast rest of the India Ocean seems to be (much?) lower priority for the West and it large-sized allies.
Given the preceding stated realities, Indians must increasingly understand, as its far-sighted, current government does that their homeland must assume a continued leadership, regionally. For it is clear with the expanded position of China, be it in reference to nearby Pakistan, the Maldives, Africa and to a lesser degree in Sri Lanka and even Southeast Asia means one thing: combined with issues regarding the Line of Actual Contact in the Himalayas, India must remain vigilant.
For Australia that hosted this key conference dealing with defence in part, it is putting huge resources into procuring advanced nuclear submarines. There is likely one main thought in mind by its UK and US partners in AUKUS about their potential use.That is if a serious war breaks out with China, to use them to bottle up that country’s harbors, not so much in direct defence of India.
In the end India as it is going forward should see itself as the strong lead “custodian” of security of the overall Indian ocean especially near it, with significant partnerships with the West, especially with the US and Australia and where possible with Japan. But not to forget France which annually through joint naval training exercises and military strategic partnerships with New Delhi is gaining visible appreciation in India.
With the Indian Ocean Defence & Security convention on this July’s horizon, it might be an added opportunity for New Delhi to underscore its message. This follows on very recent news as earlier referred to regarding that Richard Verma, Deputy Secretary, US State Department has embarked, “… on a six-day official visit to India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives to strengthen the US’ bilateral ties with the key Indo-Pacific partners and reaffirm its enduring commitment to a free, open, secure, and prosperous region.” (NDTV) This is positive.
All Quad members should take note but ensure that they do their rightful parts. India will show leadership in the Quad, especially on the Indian Ocean side. But it cannot carry an excessive burden. It is that simple that others must also step up at the “wicket” or risk losing the “game” – resulting in an ascendant expansionist China, with both, democracy and stability for the region in descent, period.
Peter Dash writes extensively on geopolitics and organized international conferences with African, Asian, and Canadian ambassadors and cabinet ministers around peace and development.