Chief of Defence Staff, Gen Anil Chauhan’s statement at a lecture he was delivering on Saturday, that Russia’s geopolitical importance would go down in the future has created a bit of a flutter. Retired diplomats and others have been pointing out that such “inappropriate” statements should not be made in public and that military men should stay out of the domain of foreign policy. But then Gen Chauhan was not wrong and in fact delivered a wake-up call to all those status quoists who would like Indians to believe that Russia’s geopolitical heft has not eroded over the years and that New Delhi can still bet on Moscow in times of crisis.
According to Gen Chauhan, “The current geopolitical environment is in a state of flux. The old order is withering away and the shapes and contours of the new world order are yet to stabilise. The geopolitical importance of Russia will go down in times to come. It is in spite of being a nuclear power. The Wagner rebellion indicates the internal weakness and is indicative of what may lie in store for the future as far as Russia is concerned.” In fact, the Wagner rebellion is symptomatic of the erosion of Vladimir Putin’s authority at a time when Russia is anyway a poor reflection of what it once was—a geopolitical superpower. The truth is, in spite of all its claims to military greatness, Russia has stayed bogged in Ukraine for a year and eight months, losing men and money, but unable to bring about a swift victory, which, presumably, was the original plan. In spite of Putin’s hopes of reviving the glory of the heydays of the Soviet Union, Russia’s powers have been dissipating. Russia’s downslide started when it lost the Cold War and got dismembered in the process. Russia lovers in India—and there are many—may not like it, but Russia lost the Cold War, in spite of which India chose to side with it until relatively recently when a reality check made it add a dose of multilateralism to its geopolitical approach.
It should be a matter of concern that even now, in 2023, around 60% of India’s defence materiel is of Russian origin, and this at a time when spare parts are scare because of supply constraints that Russia faces because of the war in Ukraine. Take the example of India’s latest purchase—the S400 missile defence system, for which it risked being sanctioned by the United States. Not only has Russia sold the S400 to China, but it has also stopped its supply to India after the initial delivery of three systems. Two deliveries are still pending and there is no certainty when these will reach India. Also, there have been reports that it’s because of Russia’s supply problems that Indian Air Force has not been able to spend the money it has been allocated for materiel purchase. Given the sanctions Russia faces from the West, it will gradually cease to be the defence manufacturing powerhouse it once was, and sooner or later India will have to hasten the process of decoupling from Russia.
Moreover, Russia’s relationship with China is hugely problematic and can pose a major challenge for India. What is the guarantee that Russia will choose India over China in case of a conflict between the two? What if it stays neutral, if not outright hostile to India? In fact, Russia has been very critical of the Quad, of which India is an important constituent. For example, the Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, during his visit to India for the SCO foreign ministers’ meeting earlier this year, said that the Quad was a front created by the US and its “enablers” to contain China. There is no reason to believe that the statement was not directed at India. He was also categorical that promoting an open and free Indo-Pacific, of which India is a vocal supporter, amounted to the construction of a “bloc system” where the Americans determined “the norms and rules of behaviour”. So by Russian logic, China-style capture of the Indo-Pacific should be the new “norms and rules of behaviour”.
It is sad that a once great power Russia has been reduced to repeating China’s talking points. But geopolitical realities are such that a sanctions-hobbled Russia, particularly after its invasion of Ukraine, needs a major power to survive and it is China in this case. This is what is driving the Russia-China relationship. China is both Russia’s main market and the main source for its imports. It’s a different matter that this situation has transpired because of the West, which has driven Moscow into Beijing’s arms. Moscow has become Beijing’s tool to try and end Western hegemony and establish China as the new hegemon. Ironically, the more China rises the deeper Russia sinks into the pit that China is digging for it, for China does not believe in sharing power—it just needs vassals. In fact Russia’s primary utility to India and the world in the present circumstances is “cheap” oil. Beyond that it now resembles a lumbering giant trying to survive in an increasingly hostile world. Nuclear arms do not make a great power, Pakistan being a case in point. Russia’s is a sad story, but it’s a true story. Gen Chauhan’s words reflect this reality. Lest we forget, corrective action can come only when such realisation is there.