India may have distanced itself from what is happening in Nepal describing it as its “internal matters to be tackled within the neighbouring country’s democratic processes, but it is keeping a close watch over the Himalayan nation, given the possibility of China’s move to meddle in political affairs of Kathmandu. India’s concern is also that political instability in Nepal will give more space to China.
India’s diplomatic team is keenly watching how China reacts to the political turmoil in Nepal. Sources said that External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, who is currently in Washington, spoke to Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla about the development in Nepal, following which MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi is said to have made a statement. Sources said that Jaishankar was keen that diplomats should keep a watch over China’s move as well.
The reason why India has grown more apprehensive about the possibility of China’s move to ramp up its activities in Nepal is a recent development aimed at Beijing strengthening its ties with Kathmandu further. The development is that Nepal has opened its Consulate General in China’s southwestern city of Chengdu, its fifth diplomatic mission in the country. Officials believe that this will bring Kathmandu and Beijing much closer. Sources said that Nepal would be among the handful of countries to have a diplomatic mission in the city of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province.
India and China had reached an agreement in 2015 to establish an Indian consulate in Chengdu and one for China in Chennai. But nothing happened. Six years later, neither the Indian nor the Chinese consulate has been established.
India sees this development as China’s efforts to further tighten up its grip over Nepal which it has been using to create trouble for Delhi. Hence, the Dragon’s eyes will be on the current crisis in Nepal to be used by it to its advantage.
According to sources, China’s ambassador in Kathmandu Hou Yanqi has talked to a couple of influential communist leaders of Nepal. Indian officials cannot underestimate Hou’s talks with the leaders in view of the fact that she was quite active when a similar crisis had cropped up in Nepal in December last year. Hou Yanqi had then actively tried to mediate between rival factions of NCP to ensure that the government survives. “How the development plays out in Kathmandu needs to be watched closely,” an officer said.
In December 2020, Beijing had also dispatched Guo Yezhou, a vice minister of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party, to Kathmandu to try and hammer out a solution to the political crisis then. He got into action then holding talks with Nepali President Bidya Devi Bhandari, Prime Minister Kharga Prasad Oli, and NCP leaders Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal. He had even met Nepali Congress’s (NC) Sher Bahadur Deuba too.
India cannot lose sight of the fact that China would never like to loosen its grip over Nepal, no matter who forms the government in Kathmandu.