For Russia, it has been a year of bold charges and bombardments, humiliating retreats, and crushing sieges. Ukraine has faced fierce resistance, surprise counterattacks, and unexpected hit-and-run attacks. Now, on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion that has killed tens of thousands of people and left cities in ruins, both sides are preparing for the potentially even more devastating phase that lies ahead.
Russia has recently stepped up its push to annex all of Ukraine’s eastern industrial region of Donbass. Kiev and its Western allies also say Moscow may seek to launch a wider, more ambitious offensive elsewhere along a front line of more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles). Ukraine is waiting for battle tanks and other new weapons pledged by the West to reclaim its occupied territories. What is nowhere to be seen is a compromise.
The Kremlin insists this must include recognition of the Crimean peninsula, which it illegally annexed in 2014, along with recognition of its other territorial gains. Ukraine categorically rejects those demands and rejects any talks until Russia withdraws all forces. While Putin is determined to achieve his goals, Ukraine and its allies are determined to prevent Russia from ending up with any of its land. Experts have warned that Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II could drag on for years, and some fear it could lead to a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
In recent months, Russian forces have tried to encircle the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut and push deep into the Donetsk region. As well as fulfilling its goal of capturing the entire Donbass, Moscow aims to weaken the Ukrainian military and prevent them from launching an offensive elsewhere.
Bakhmut has become an important symbol of solidity for Ukraine, as well as a way to tie down and destroy the most capable Russian army. Both sides have used ammunition at a rate not seen in decades.
Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said Russia had poured more troops and weapons into the Donbass and attacked other areas in an apparent bid to distract Ukrainian forces. “Russia currently has the initiative and the advantage on the battlefield,” he said, noting the acute shortage of ammunition in Kiev.
Russia has relied on its vast arsenal, and increased production of arms and ammunition, giving it a significant edge. While Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies note that Moscow is running out of precision missiles, it has plenty of older types of warheads. But even if Ukraine and its allies expect a wider Russian offensive beyond the Donbass, it could be a gamble for Moscow, which mobilized 300,000 reservists last fall to bolster its forces.
Igor Strelkov, a former Russian security official who led separatist forces in Donbass in 2014 when fighting broke out there, warned that any major invasion could be disastrous for Russia because its preparations would be impossible to hide. And the aggressors will face a devastating response.
He noted that an offensive would also pose logistical challenges, such as thwarting Russia’s attempt to capture Kiev early in the war. Strelkov warned, “Any large-scale offensive will quickly and inevitably cause huge losses, which will exhaust the resources accumulated during mobilization.”
