A study published in Lancet Public Health has projected that heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century, with southern European countries like Italy, Greece, and Spain experiencing the most significant increases. The research indicates that while cold-related deaths currently outnumber those from heat, the balance may shift dramatically as global temperatures rise.
If global temperatures increase by 3°C above preindustrial levels, heat-related deaths could rise to 129,000 annually, compared to 44,000 today. Even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, the death toll from both heat and cold could increase from 407,000 to 450,000 by 2100. The study highlights that the rise in heat deaths will outweigh the decrease in cold deaths, posing unprecedented challenges to public health systems.
David García-León from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre noted that climate change could lead to many more heat-related deaths as the climate warms and populations age. The study’s findings challenge the argument that climate change might benefit society by reducing cold-related deaths, pointing out that the increase in heat deaths will offset any gains.
Madeleine Thomson from the Wellcome Trust emphasized that the study underscores the urgent need to address climate change to prevent further loss of life. Besides direct health impacts, extreme heat is also linked to negative effects such as crop failures, wildfires, and damage to infrastructure, which can further exacerbate societal challenges.
The study, which analyzed data from 854 cities, found that all parts of Europe would see an increase in heat-related deaths, with the highest impact in southern regions. Researchers recommend investing in healthcare, developing action plans, and improving building insulation as measures to reduce the impact. They stress that addressing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to mitigating the worst effects of climate change and adapting to its inevitable impacts.