Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on Friday said that he had no prime ministerial ambitions and was only working to bring the entire opposition together. Nitish was sworn in as chief minister of Bihar for a record eighth time on Wednesday after he dumped his four-year-old alliance with the BJP a day before and joined hands with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and other smaller parties of the Mahagathbandhan to form a new government in the state.
Ever since Nitish left the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), amid allegations of a Maharashtra-like plot by the BJP to oust him from his party Janata Dal (United) and topple his government, speculation is rife that he may be the Opposition’s prime ministerial face in 2024 general elections. When reporters asked him on Friday if he would be a possible PM candidate of the Opposition, Nitish dispelled such a possibility, saying, “I say this with
olded hands, I have no such thoughts… My work is to work for everyone. I will make an effort to see that all the opposition parties walk and work together. If they do, it will be good.”
After his swearing in, Nitish had in a veiled manner threw a gauntlet down at Prime Minister Narendra Modi without naming him, giving rise to speculations about him taking a shot at it. Political circles are abuzz with rumours that one year down the line Nitish may even appoint his deputy Tejaswi Yadav as chief minister of Bihar and move whole lock, stock and barrel to Delhi to bring the moribund Opposition together in a prelude to the parliamentary elections.
Political pundits have begun conjuring up all sorts of arithmetic and possible scenarios. The recent development, according to sources, have also made the Congress leadership sit up and listen. There is no doubt that this would have a significant impact as a challenge to the BJP given the emerging caste equations. But, as political observers put it, the billion dollar question is: Would Nitish be acceptable to all opposition parties?
Observers doubt that Congress would accept him as a leader to represent the entire Opposition. According to sources, Nitish took the step only after consulting with Congress interim chief Sonia Gandhi, though. He is also expected to arrive in the capital any day soon to meet Sonia and chalk out a strategy to move ahead. Sources further informed The Daily Guardian that the Congress is working on some options as well to accommodate Nitish in the party fold. He might be appointed as United Progressive Alliance (UPA) head or convenor. The grand old party indulging him in this manner means the Congress would be giving up on its prime ministerial candidate.
But the road ahead does not look as smooth for Nitish as it is being made out by political observers. Nitish no doubt has a clean image. But the downside is that he has not been able to steer his party JD(U) to electoral victory ever on his own. He won only 43 seats in the last assembly elections and was yet made the chief minister by his dominant NDA alliance partner BJP. On earlier occasion, he won the election in alliance with RJD only, which he dumped for the BJP.
Nitish, in other words, does not have the charisma or popular appeal to win elections in his home state of Bihar let alone in other states. It is doubtful if Nitish is made UPA convenor or chief he would help Congress to hit big in the Hindi hinterland. His biggest test before 2024 parliamentary elections would be assembly elections due this year and the next.
His real test, or problems, will begin with elections in states like Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana, among others. If he aligns with the Congress-led UPA, it will cast a shadow over parties like AAP, TRS, Samajwadi Party and TMC ever coming together with the UPA. AAP under Arvind Kejriwal is steadily growing, and apart from Delhi and Punjab the party is making inroads in other states. AAP, perhaps, may not like the idea of aligning with the Congress.
Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao is not in favour of the Congress, either, and is doing his own bit to unite non-Congress, non-BJP parties. Akhilesh Yadav would in every likelihood go solo in Uttar Pradesh in 2024 general elections. Similarly, TMC leader Mamata Banerjee, whose aversion to left parties is well known, is unlikely to align with Congress.
The problem with Nitish as a leader is that whatever appeal among the voters he has is confined to his home state only and it is a big question if he would be able to draw voters of other states to make a mark in 2024 parliamentary elections.