Looking back, one of the most significant geopolitical developments in 2021 has been the institutionalization of the Quad—earlier known as the quadrilateral dialogue—comprising India, the United States, Japan and Australia. What was earlier nothing more than a chatroom, had two major meetings this year, first a virtual one of the heads of state and government in March, soon after Joe Biden assumed office as the President of the United States in January. The second one was in September, when the leaders of these four nations met in Washington, DC, for their first in-person meeting. Just when it was looking like the Quad would fulfil Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s prophecy of “dissipating like seafoam”, the in-person meeting pulled this grouping out of the morass of inactivity it had sunk into for over a decade. It drew out a roadmap for what the four nations wanted to achieve in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. Without mentioning China even once in the joint statement, the four countries made it clear that they were in principle opposed to an aggressive and expansionist China and stood for a “free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law”, which is “undaunted by coercion”. Stressing on democracy, rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, and territorial integrity of states, the four democracies made it clear that the Quad is premised on putting a check on China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. However, by not mentioning China in the joint statement, enough room was given to the “bullied”— primarily the ASEAN nations that are wary of being dragged into a US vs China binary—to be part of a broader Quad Plus construct. Health security was made one of the main focuses of the Quad, including vaccine delivery and pandemic preparedness. There was mention of climate, cyberspace, critical technology, supply chain resilience. Promise was made for an annual meeting of the four leaders, and of the foreign ministers, apart from the formation of working groups that will work on these issues. Significantly, the institutionalization of the Quad also brought about a shift in language, from Presidential candidate Joe Biden’s “Asia-Pacific”, a term favoured by China, to President Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific, a term used by his predecessor, Donald Trump. Asia-Pacific has China at its centre, while Indo-Pacific puts India at the centre. Hence, it’s understandable why China and its sidekick, Russia, are unhappy with the term. However, there was some carping about the Quad lacking military teeth—even though military exercises are an important component of the Quad—especially in the context of the formation of the military alliance of AUKUS among Australia, UK and the US. But then this is perhaps too “nascent” a stage to talk about a security alliance. The most important takeaway from the Quad in 2021 is that democracies, in spite of their inherent chaos and sometimes-muddled thinking, band together and stand up when threatened. In other words, 2021 saw the institutionalization of the pushback against a rogue Communist China.
If Quad was the biggest “hit” of the year, what were the two biggest “misses”?
The first “miss” is, without any doubt, the Afghanistan fiasco. The way the US cut and run from that broken country, leaving it at the mercy of a rabid, radical force that rules with the help of the whip and the gun, will be remembered as one of history’s darkest chapters. The horrifying images of desperate Afghans trying to flee the country by clinging on to the wheels of speeding aircraft and then falling to their death will not be forgotten easily. The way the Taliban sauntered into Kabul on 15 August, as the Americans cut a deal with them to ensure a safe passage for US soldiers, has hurt the high moral ground that Washington tends to take on many issues, including human rights. Worse, they left behind a well-stocked armoury for the Taliban to use or sell, with the possibility very high of that materiel falling in the hands of terrorist forces and thus destabilizing the entire region and beyond. A humanitarian disaster is unfolding in Afghanistan, making it the biggest horror story of 2021, which also severely dented the US’ standing as a superpower and world leader. If there is scepticism around the world about how trustworthy the US is as a partner, the manner of its Afghanistan exit played a part in that.
The other big “miss” was one of the biggest “misses” in 2020 as well—the inability of the international community to hold PRC accountable for the spread of the coronavirus, which is still devastating lives and livelihoods around the world. The investigation into China’s role in the spread of the virus turned out to be a farce, although the possibility of a lab leak was not ruled out. No satisfactory answer is coming from the US, UK, etc., as well on the role played by some of their scientists in the gain of function research conducted in China. The end result is, the world stays quiet, while China continues as if it is business as usual, even as the virus refuses to die down.
Let us hope 2022 will be better. Happy New Year to all the readers of this column.